Quote from: ImI on October 15, 2013, 11:09:12 PM

Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on October 15, 2013, 10:56:30 PM

Quote from: dextryn on October 15, 2013, 10:44:54 PM

I can't believe the network hash rate....I new it was going to explode...but more than double?

I made a thread to help people predict this. Said 6 to 8 PH/s by end of the year. Honestly I think now it will be closer to 8 to 10 PH/s. By mid 2014 we probably are looking at 15 PH/s+ if ASIC companies serious cut prices (say <$2 per GH/s delivery in 30 days or less) we could see more than 20 PH/s. I don't think 30-40 PH/s by end of 2014 is that conservative. Worst case scenario we way overshoot and end up 50-80 PH/s and new sales flatline for a while.

So you assume a remarkably slower monthly growth in the coming year?

Lets say end of 2013 = 10 Ph and June 2014 = 16 PH

That would lead to a monthly growth of 8% in the first half.

Yes unless prices go significantly lower. Trying running the math in a Bitcoin mining calculator (discount a Jupiter by 50% cost) starting at 10 PH/s. It doesn't look pretty. People have a pretty good ability to delude themselves that future actions won't happen but when the day 0 profitability sucks (i.e. if I buy this today and difficulty doesn't rise at all I won't break even in a year) it is pretty easy to not buy and wait it out.

The other thing to consider is that as we get close to 20 PH/s the market for less efficient gear ( Avalon, ASICMiner, BFL) is going to go down the toilet. At 20 PH/s and $0.10 per kWh an Avalon rig for example will spend 100% of gross revenue in electricity. So buy $1000 for a rig and then spend $100 in electricity to get $100 in Bitcoins. Doesn't sound very attractive does it.

However as I indicated if delivery times shrink (say 30 day preorder) and prices SIGNIFCANTLY (not this 10% off but <$2 GH/s decline) we could see 20 PH/s+ by mid of the year.

Yeah I understand it is a pretty wide range. I am not claiming to predict the future just pointing out in the near term anyone looking to deploy should consider a min of 10 PH/s by end of year and another 5 to 10 PH/s in the first half of next year. If your "math" for making fortune uses more optimistic numbers you likely are going to get buried.