Quote from: Denker on April 01, 2018, 11:27:10 AM

Quote from: Cryptodaddy05 on April 01, 2018, 06:26:39 AM

Log graph today of bitcoins price from 2010 to March 2018 - https://imgur.com/gallery/nD4rH

That $6.9K price today at the bottom looks tempting if you believe bitcoin is going to follow the long term growth line on this chart, which to my eye would put it at a cool $1 million per bitcoin in ~ 6 years say 2024 - unless the whole thing crashes and burns of course.

But I honestly cant see that happening, with increasing use and ownership of bitcoin worldwide and with a team of 200 top developers working on stellar improvements for it so that its ready for worldwide adult adoption rates of 5-10% up from the 0.5-1% of us who own it now!

What do others think bitcoins long term growth rate will be or not be, and what are your price predictions for 2024 looking at this long-term log chart? Interested to hear, and anyone buying at $6.9K? They say dont try to catch a falling knife so Im waiting and watching!

Thanks for that picture.
$1million in 6 years seems to be way too much imo. I myself am pretty bullish on Bitcoin's long term growth and value. But a 7 figure $ value will probably need at least one or two more decades. And even then this is a highly speculative assumption as this would mean a marketcap of almost 3 times as high as gold now. In comparison to all the other markets and assets out there (derivatives, bond and stock market,forex market, private and commercial property market, foreign offshore tax haven accounts etc.), it is of course possible, as Bitcoin is ridiculously small compared to them.
In 2024 I hope we will have reached $100k. That would be amazing. As there will be 2 more halvenings happen until then, which will cut the supply to 3.125 BTC per Block, this should be possible, if Bitcoin continues to be around until then as the dominant coin and open Blockchain.
Maybe we'll be way higher in price, but I like to be more conservative than too optimistic. Giving predictions 6 years ahead is in general impossible in crypto as we know how fast this space evolves.

Thank you for your kind words, and yes any extrapolation for 6 years carries no predictive value as no one can tell what positive or negative factors the future holds. But its interrsting as a pure exercise in long-term logarithmic regression models which I believe used to be popular with BTC holders.

I was led to actually chart out what I was eyeballing by a Reddit user who responded to this post, so heres my extrapolation of the long-term bitcoin trend line - https://imgur.com/gallery/9iF3t - again being careful to say this is not a prediction. And this was the similar exercise by the Reddit guy on his trading view - https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/D77ZTaQb-Bitcoin-macro-view-non-linear-regression/

I think my trend line and his mean line are quote similar, with BTC hitting 200K in early 2022 and then the magic 1 million on my log-graph in early 2025 - but who knows?!

And being conservative is admirable I think, but I like that you do think BTC can be a million in a decade or so - and like you I would be very happy if my hodled BTC was worth 100K in 2024! Cheers to a fellow crypto enthusiast!