Quote from: Herbert2020 on April 07, 2018, 06:20:58 AM

Quote from: Canis Majoris on April 02, 2018, 07:36:28 PM

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out.

"cash outs" such as Mt Gox trustee never caused any drop in the past to want to cause a drop now. the drop would have happened nonetheless and in case you have forgotten they started selling their coins when price was a little above $4000 last year and it continued as the price went up to $20k.

I'm not sure I understand what you refer to here. As far as I know, there was no selling of this scale in the past at prices so high. The FBI auctioned off a few dozen thousand bitcoins in the past but that was an off-market deal anyway and it didn't affect the price for obvious reasons.

Quote from: Herbert2020 on April 07, 2018, 06:20:58 AM

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I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding.

not at all. you are forgetting the panic sellers and how they work.

Are you sure you know how panic selling actually works? I think there are no more panic sellers left on the market by now, in massive numbers. The vast majority of them should be gone already. That likely explains why we no longer see flash crashes - in the absence of bearwhales of the Mt. Gox custodian scale, at least.

Quote from: Herbert2020 on April 07, 2018, 06:20:58 AM

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So it is not just about demand building up, it is also as much about supply running dry at lower prices. That could potentially lead to less volatility, at least temporarily until a new long-term trend gets established.

again i disagree. it is always about both supply and demand. right now there is an equilibrium between the two which is why we have been seeing an stable price for the past 30 hours. when this equilibrium is broken price starts to move in that direction.

The price can stop falling as either supply dries up or demand builds up. I'm talking about the process, not the end result in this case.