I know it is the obligation of everyone in the forum to chase everyone off (moar BTC for me!) , so I know an optimistic outlook is a faux pas,
As if that would work. Many of us have been predicting this bloodshed among virtually all asic customers for years now, it didnt change a thing, and wont change a thing.
but there is a cap on how many people want to buy ASICs and we're going to hit an inflection where hardware supply will simply exceed demand.
Doesnt everybody want to make money without working? As long as asics are at least marginally profitable, people will buy. And when people no longer buy, prices will just drop until they buy again. The capacity is there, its going to be used one way or another. Even if miraculously miners no longer buy, these asics will just end up in large private mines.
BTW, Im sure there are loads of (ex)miners like me, sitting out the current onslaught, but who want to get in to the game again once things have settled down a bit, say next summer or so. I dont mind thin margins and long ROI times, I just dont want it to be a 100% gamble if my chosen manufacturer will be shipping one week sooner or later and how much the others will ship in the 6 weeks thereafter. Satoshi dice gives you far better odds. But that doesnt mean I wont buy an asic ever, if the opportunity presents itself, Ill buy. But thats not gonna happen anytime soon.