Quote from: Puppet on October 29, 2013, 08:31:32 PM

Quote from: amer on October 29, 2013, 07:29:28 PM

I know it is the obligation of everyone in the forum to chase everyone off (moar BTC for me!) , so I know an optimistic outlook is a faux pas,

As if that would work. Many of us have been predicting this bloodshed among virtually all asic customers for years now, it didnt change a thing, and wont change a thing.

I'm not saying it works, I'm saying that's the attitude, which I guess you are agreeing with. There are posts on even this thread about how KnC will work out, but everyone else is doomed. Meanwhile, KnC had this exact same panic cycle right before launch, complete with lawsuits and is still not clearly "not doomed".

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but there is a cap on how many people want to buy ASICs and we're going to hit an inflection where hardware supply will simply exceed demand.

Doesnt everybody want to make money without working? As long as asics are at least marginally profitable, people will buy.

Of course, that's the whole point of this, no one is mining for any other reason. However, "everybody" needs to also believe that BTC are a thing and this community is not that big. We are finite and as unfathomable as it sounds and there is a point where we have gotten our hands on as many miners as we are able to deal with and the hardware manufacturers will run out of quantum leaps to sell to us and do things like "have inventory". Not to mention, miners don't just have to compete with each other, but they have to compete with "buying BTC and just holding onto it" which has the cost of 0 cents per kWh.

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And when people no longer buy, prices will just drop until they buy again. The capacity is there, its going to be used one way or another. Even if miraculously miners no longer buy, these asics will just end up in large private mines.

We're agreeing. The point at which supply exceeds demands is an example of one reason to lower prices - to increase demand again.

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BTW, Im sure there are loads of (ex)miners like me, sitting out the current onslaught, but who want to get in to the game again once things have settled down a bit, say next summer or so. I dont mind thin margins and long ROI times, I just dont want it to be a 100% gamble if my chosen manufacturer will be shipping one week sooner or later and how much the others will ship in the 6 weeks thereafter. Satoshi dice gives you far better odds. But that doesnt mean I wont buy an asic ever, if the opportunity presents itself, Ill buy. But thats not gonna happen anytime soon.

Also a great point. I'm saying is that there is a limit to how many miners people will buy and that is bound by common sense (like you), your available electrical capacity (home or what you're willing to host somewhere), the BTC market conditions (CURRENTLY not being a factor, but not a guarantee) and physics (28mm is the min size for BTC ASICs for the near term). 650PH predictions make no sense because of all these reasons and are based on "well, if it keeps going on forever like it has for just the last two months then this is where we'll be" and not on all the things you are bringing up. The last two months are not normal and long-term predictions based on a very unique period in BTC history is what everyone is doing and its misguided.