Quote from: Lancelot19 on October 31, 2013, 02:32:06 PM

Quote from: Jaymax on August 29, 2013, 07:11:48 PM

I think this needs to be looked at as much from the expenditure side as the forecast fabrication side.

In essence, a years worth of investment is coming onto the network now and over the next few months. A lot of new miners (like me) have spent their available cash on pre-orders. I'm not sure that the market will be there to pay for the production of the ~ 6 PH/s that's been announced by the new ASIC foundries over the past couple of weeks.

Of course, I could be very wrong, and new corporate-scale mining companies with new external capital might appear, but the existing contract 'cloud' hashing services don't seem to me to be capturing that much interest.

So another way to look at the question would be to try and calculate retrospective month-by-month dollar spends, and projecting that curve and factoring in some approximate hashrate-per-dollar forecasts.

I really hope your pre-orders arrive on time. Every day I hear another company postponing delivery.

If all the companies postpone by 1-2 months the roi-calculations stay pretty much the same cause we see then also a postponed diff-increase by 1-2 months.

Diff increase has to be fueled by someone and if those companies have delays then the diff-increase has also delays.