Quote from: Giraffe.BC on July 10, 2011, 02:29:47 AM

I doubt you will either when, say twenty years from now or so, you look around and realize everything is still pretty much the same. No big collapse, no economic apocaplyse (except that gold is back down at $800 an ounce or so, so all the goldbugs lost a ton buying high and refusing to sell), just normal growth and inflation.

You do realize that if that 'normal' rate of inflation continues for twenty years as is, the $800 will have become $3200, right? Gold at $1500 now seems a pretty good investment then

Massaged inflation numbers in red, actual in blue, from http://www.shadowstats.com:
http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-cpi.gif?hl=ad&t=

Quote from: billyjoeallen

A deflationary death spiral is going to happen absent considerable Fed/Treasury intervention (massive money printing).

A deflationary spiral is already happening worldwide, it's just hidden beneath bogus statistics and stimulus packages that temporarily make it appear everything is going well, but in reality are only making things worse. Those packages come from going deeper into debt, which will have its price. The sad truth is, if the Fed does nothing, there will be a sudden crash, if they continue the massive money printing, there will be a long, drawn out one (also see 1920/1921 followed by the roaring twenties vs. the great depression, followed by hyperinflation and WWII..). The sudden crash is better for everybody, even those who stand to lose most from it (politicians/banksters), they just don't want to know it.

None of this is being helped by institutions like Goldman Sachs being allowed to make the same gambits over and over again with impunity (latest example: collude with corrupt Greek politicians to hide Greece's debt while betting against them on the side), and getting bailed out if it backfires.

Quote from: billyjoeallen

Holding physical dollars is the best play if you think one of the TBTFs (such as Bank America) is going down.

That logic is mindboggling. Massive money printing, in your own words, will make your Dollars worth more than something they don't massively devalue? If the TBTFs do fail, the first thing to go is the USD. No amount of printing will help that, only accelerate (hyperinflation).

BTW, the off-book debts that are coming out also exist in the US, the UK and the rest of the Eurozone, but they are by far the largest in the US. Hence the ~400k USD debt per capita instead of the so far officially acknowledged ~45k.

If you think gold is in a bubble, at least invest in oil, grain, fresh water or something else that will retain its value then. USD is not that something (neither is the Euro, and definitely not the GBP). I wouldn't actually advise investing in Bitcoin either because that's even more risky right now, but if I had to choose between BTC and USD, I'd take BTC.

And this isn't investment advice, I'm not qualified to give it etc.