Quote from: CryptoStash on April 15, 2018, 07:44:27 PM

Quote from: comby on April 15, 2018, 06:41:41 PM

Hard times, without finding a block it's even harder to stay at Kano for me - even when you get much more % share of a block compared to slush for example, if there's no block withing 80 hrs now it might be better to switch back to another pool?

I did the math myself recently
...

Unfortunately, there's a major misunderstanding in your post.
You can not predict luck.
Luck is only a measurement of the past.

In Bitcoin (and any other random set of events) past luck has no affect on future performance.
If we have a 700% block now, the next block after it can also be 700%, or 1% or 42% or 666% or whatever.
If we get a 1% block, the next block after it can also be 1%, or 900% or 50% or whatever.
As can the next 10 or 20 or 50 blocks ...

You can not ever say that there is a time to mine on a PPLNS pool.
That's assuming you can predict luck - which you cannot do.

You simply mine on a PPLNS pool and understand that luck goes up and down randomly.

It's funny how we've had way better than expected luck for over a month, then suddenly when we are working on a single block over 200% people start to wonder if there is something wrong.
Clearly statistics is not a strong point for many, but statistics plays the BIGGEST role in understanding PPLNS mining.
See on the previous page.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=789369.msg34742704#msg34742704

You can be certain, however, that mining on a PPS pool will pay you less in the long term, than mining on a big enough PPLNS pool that is trustworthy.
If you can't see past each long block on a PPLNS pool, then you should be mining on PPS and be certain of getting less reward.

If you need to understand why a PPS pool MUST charge you more than a PPLNS pool then have a read here:
https://bitcoil.co.il/pool_analysis.pdf

On any trustworthy PPLNS pool you expect 100% luck minus orphans minus fees.

You wont get that every block, you WONT get that every 100 blocks.
You might see that every 500, 1000 or maybe 2000 or more blocks.

But you won't see it always low or always high - you'll see it going up and down.
That is the nature of random events.

--

I had a look at your shift graph and am glad to see that you still do have your hash rate here.
So I did a calculation of your total Shares and Rewards as at the time I did it - which of course includes the 240+% of Shares which have so far had no Rewards so far at all.

Your total PPS reward (PPS%) since you've been mining on the pool is ... 106.3% PPS

How I calculate this is: for every share you submit, it will be in a network block with a specific difficulty.
Group them all together for the same difficulty.
Thus for each sum of shares I can determine the 100% PPS value of that sum of shares.
Add up all the sums S
Add up all your rewards R

Your total mining PPS% is R/S

But if you were to stop mining today, then any blocks found in the 5Nd after you stop would increase that R value but (of course) have no effect on the S value after you stop mining, so if we do find more blocks, as is expected, if you stopped, you'd expect to have an even higher total PPS% rewarded than that.

I guess there may also be some question about how much the PPS pool is actually paying you.