Quote from: DannyHamilton on November 05, 2013, 01:05:08 PM

Quote from: molecular on November 03, 2012, 07:45:18 PM

Ok, new data, will recalc everything:

probability of getting struck by lightning in any given year: 1/280000.
probability of taking a shit at any given point in time: 1/(60*24) = 1/1440 (assuming you take a crap every day and the actual process takes 1 minute)
probability of getting struck by lightning while taking a crap in any given year: 1/(280000*1440) = 1/1.47E11 = 2.48E-9
probability of taking a crap while being in a situation where being struck by lightning can actually occur = 1/1440 = 0.25 = 1.74E-4
probability of finding a collision: 1E-65
getting hit by lightning while taking a crap for how many years in a row is equally probable as finding a collision: log(1E-65) / log(1.74E-4) = 17.3

is my math roughly correct now?

If so, I can say: "Finding a collision is about as likely as being struck by lightning while taking a crap every year for 17 years in a row".

I just spit Energy Drink all over my keyboard. Thanks dude. Angry