Quote from: peach on July 11, 2011, 11:33:57 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on July 11, 2011, 11:07:49 PM

Quote from: peach on July 10, 2011, 10:11:06 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on July 10, 2011, 09:40:08 PM

Quote from: peach on July 10, 2011, 07:06:25 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on July 10, 2011, 06:45:50 PM

Quote from: peach on July 10, 2011, 04:55:44 PM

Quote from: Jalum on July 10, 2011, 04:27:48 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on July 10, 2011, 04:21:21 PM

It's a high risk investment with an extremely low risk/reward ratio. You have approximately a 30% chance of making 10X your original investment. Any poker player would jump at the chance.

Haha I love it when bitcoiners quantify things like this. Please explain how someone has a 30% chance of making 10x their investment.

+1

I pulled the numbers out of my ass, but the principle still stands. Bitcoin has less than a 50/50 chance of reaching critical mass, but if it does, the return on investment will substantially more than double.

50% chance you say? That's like saying winning or losing a game is always equally probable, just because there are two possible outcomes.

Calling to reference expected value and poker play here is even dumber. Who's the say that the odds aren't <1% that we'll gain a 10% gain on our investment?

I invested some money in Bitcoin myself, but I'm just saying assigning expected values to such things isn't appropriate.

LESS THAN 50%. that's anywhere from 0.00000001% to 49.99999999%. A wide margin. It's not my fault you suck at reading comprehension.

Easy now, big guy.

I obviously made a reading-error, but that doesn't nullify the other points I made. You can't hide behind those with your caps lock and ad hominem.

I'm not assigning expected values. I already said that the numbers were just there to illustrate the principle of a bet with an expectation of loss that is still worth making.

Thank you for explaining what expected value is. We all needed that.

Anyways, there is no possible way you can say with confidence that investing in Bitcoin at this stage has positive EV.

I'm confident that investing in Bitcoin at this stage has a positive EV. You are refuted.