Quote from: theymos on April 17, 2018, 11:17:27 PM

If this cycle is indeed inevitable in politics, then Bitcoin offers a hope of escape, since Bitcoin (and crypto-anarchy generally) is all about removing politics from life. Instead of trusting a king, an aristocracy, or a majority, you structure things so that everyone is and can reasonably be sovereign over his own affairs.

I do think Bitcoin offers a hope of escape or at least resistance over the longer term.

Polybius was clearly a very insightful individual and his writings highlight the fact that human nature has not really changed much over the last 2000 years.

The cycle was articulated with a slightly different focus by Henning Webb Prentis, Jr in the 1940's but it is the same basic idea.

Quote from: Henning Webb Prentis, Jr

Paradoxically enough, the release of initiative and enterprise made possible by popular self-government ultimately generates disintegrating forces from within. Again and again after freedom has brought opportunity and some degree of plenty, the competent become selfish, luxury-loving and complacent, the incompetent and the unfortunate grow envious and covetous, and all three groups turn aside from the hard road of freedom to worship the Golden Calf of economic security.

The historical cycle seems to be: From bondage to spiritual faith; from spiritual faith to courage; from courage to liberty; from liberty to abundance; from abundance to selfishness; from selfishness to apathy; from apathy to dependency; and from dependency back to bondage once more."

I think the cycle is mostly accurate but it has two basic requirements for progression to occur.

1) There has to be moral corruption that those with power are susceptible too.
2) There has to be a means by which the corrupt can be overthrown

If we ever reached the stage where there was leadership without corruption they cycle would cease. If we ever reached the stage where tyranny was absolute omnipresent and oppressive with no viable way to ever overthrow it the cycle would also cease.

Unfortunately of the two possible ends to this cycle a permanent tyranny appears the more likely one.
We are a perhaps only a single generation away from the time when technological advances will probably make overthrowing a tyranny nearly impossible once it is established.

AgentofCoin highlighted out how this could play out.

Re: What is the future of bitcoin in 2025?

Quote from: AgentofCoin on October 04, 2017, 06:58:21 PM

Around this time, many countries will have already converted their physical
monetary systems to digital systems, likely using editable ledger systems.
They will not be public, immutable, decentralized, or etc, and will not be
utilized for the purpose of a more efficient and fair monetary system, but
to assist and ensure governmental control and monitoring of their citizens.
Under this system, purchases are recorded and analyzed instantly to
determine the human's probable future actions.

Based upon this system, in conjunctions with a synthetic implant powered
and secured by the human's nervous system shortly thereafter, it will be
possible to implement an end game scenario where human rights no longer
exist since they can be denied by erasing your existence from their system.
In those countries, citizens who have been "erased" will be unable to even
buy a loaf of bread or be given access to medical service facilities. Any
citizens who come across an "erased" will be accused of unlawful association,
and thus be subject to possible removal from their system. This reinforces
the government's power and control over the human citizens. The humans
in this system can never collectively organize and attempt to overthrow this
totalitarian control system since their future actions are calculated based
upon their recent actions and recent inactions.

At this time, the Bitcoin Network is the only free and fair montary system
that allows humans to survive outside of this future totalitarian system.
Majority of individuals who have been "erased" will form small collectives
which perform services that are legal or deemed illegal by those counties,
and will be compensated through bitcoins. Citizens within these countries
will at times need the services of the "erased" and so some will possess
bitcoins in secret so that they can purchase their particular services.

I think that cryptocurrency will force reform of fiat currency. The scenario traincarswreck
presented is one where bitcoin will force fiat to more closely approximate nash's ideal money over time and this forced reform will probably happen. Traincarswreck thesis was unnecessarily hard to follow but it was in the following thread.

Open Letter to GMaxwell and Sincere Rational Core Devs
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1809999.0

Trainscarswreck process of reform, however, leads logically to a single world centrally controlled nashian currency from which it is very easy to fall into the tyranny AgentofCoin outlined.

I would prefer to be utterly wrong in my analysis of this probable future.