Hey SlipperySlope,
Great to see you back. Immediately again great analyses. Thanks so much for sharing again.
I have also sold too many coins and was taken by surprise with this new relaunch into new highs.
I thought your rational evaluation at the time
indicating lower prices was sound.
What was wrong with the line you drew at the time you think?
Also, I agree we can expect an s-curve, but I don't see the first curve on your chart above. The period where growth is increasing year over year. What period do you think that was?
First, thanks for the welcome. I am drawn to this forum, like a moth to a lighted window, whenever there is a bitcoin bubble. I am through with trading and just buying. Plus I have an affection for Risto viewpoints.
Regarding the trendline connecting the bottoms of the previous two bubbles, I think now that 2012 was a period of consolidation, where the uncertainty of bitcoin held back speculation - that was released in January-April 2013. It now appears that 2012 was not the trend, rather it was below the trend.
In accordance with the conventional wisdom that bitcoin prices will be marked by a series of bubbles before settling down as a mature financial instrument, I believe that this bubble and future bubbles will have the form of damped oscillations rather than the classically symmetrical financial bubble pattern exhibited by the June 2011 peak.
Can you restate your issue about the S-curve? I plotted it log 10 so the exponential part is linear on the chart.