I'd personally say air-gapped wallets set up correctly are safer than hardware wallets,

I agree with this, with the caveat being a person must know what they're doing.

but I don't think any person has lost any coins over either so far, so you should be safe no matter which way you go.

Actually, here is a story of a guy who lost $30K using a Trezor because he forgot his PIN. The story has a happy ending as a hack was able to bypass that lock, but he could have definitely lost it.

https://www.wired.com/story/i-forgot-my-pin-an-epic-tale-of-losing-dollar30000-in-bitcoin/