Quote from: best_btc on November 17, 2013, 11:56:59 AM

can somebody please help me with reality-checking of my speculation logic: relatively, the higher the btc price goes, understandeably the alts go down, as we see. lets say, I invested 1m usd in btc a year ago, and now its worth 10m. would I not see high probabilty in putting those 10m into low worth altcoins? when to buy, if not, when they are low? If an altcoin gets air, it has the chance of getting back to its even former price, lets say it 5-10x whats its worth now, by simply the pump excitement. i am not saying, that btc won't reach from now 5-10x its value of 2500-5,000 usd, but its much less likely to happen in a given time period, than it is for it to happen to alts.
in april, i kinda had this logic, to ride the wave in the wave, but was impatient to let btc soar into its real highs. when following this logic, i was consciously looking for the smallest valued coin, this is how i ended up with DVC to be honest. i thought, that the lower the value, the higher the capability to volatility. --> if dvc goes now from 18 satoshis to 36, its not making news headlines. but when btc goes from 450 to 900 usd (same ratio), that is news all over. see? I have this logic, that small alts have this amazing potential to soar, but still. what is missing? or am i totally on the wrong track here? thoughts please.

and one more thing: i am not exactly getting the full picture, i am learning, but i hear you say, that the business modell of dvc so far actually makes people dump their coins right away. if that is true, lets fix this dynamic urgently... that would be ridiculous.

Back in April when bitcoin last had it's big surge, there were only about six or seven alt coins - and it was the fashion for newcomers to the bitcoin world to put some money in all of these "just in case".

There's now about 150 altcoins, and while a few people this time are talking about putting some money in altcoins, this time round the consensus in places like Reddit is that all alts are "scams", due to the sheer number of them. Those few newcomers who are interested in alts don't even know Devcoin exists because it doesn't get visibility on places like "lets talk bitcoins" or wired and the other "mainstream" places which occasionally write about alts.

Regarding the writers - they receive their coins 45,000 at a time, so while the small sales of 100,000 coins a time might be from them, the big dumps of several million coins at a time tend to be from savers who've accumulated in the last two years. There are about 92 million devcoins in existence - and as the bitcoin price rises, people are scouring their wallets and selling any and all alts they have for bitcoins, which they cash into dollars asap because the bitcoin price is likely to pull back (nothing goes up permanently in a straight line after all). All the alts have crashed as a result.

When the bitcoin price drops back a bit, the alts will stabilize too as the desperation to sell abates. It's a waiting game.