Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 05, 2018, 01:23:53 PM

Quote from: KyleSpades on May 05, 2018, 01:12:42 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 05, 2018, 01:01:15 PM

Quote from: KyleSpades on May 05, 2018, 12:45:32 PM

On a sidenote, I believe the last chances to go short will be presented today or tomorrow. Prices tend to correct after super bullish waves like this one.

Yeah of course, a correction could come at any time, so one thing would be to close longs along the way (which means selling) and another thing is going short (which means going on margin, and is a step further than some folks are willing to go). Personally, I don't mind selling small amounts on the way up, but going short is playing a bit harder ball than is within my bailiwick.

To be more specific, I could see breaking above $10k, by 10% or even 15% and then correcting below $10k,,, but who knows.. $10k could become a new floor, also, as others have postulated that possibility, which is not unreasonable, either.

Yeah, just like 9.2k has already seem to have become the new floor, at least for a while. You're right, I believe closing longs does fit better.

I'm just worried with that April 17 - 24/25 fractal. IF things end up happening in a similar fashion, we could see a spike in 10.6k and a 13% correction following May 6th and 7th (retesting 9.2k, most likely, and running up to the 11ks from there).

Or it could just keep spiking up like November - 17th of december 2017, who knows Grin

I don't have any issue with what you are saying, and it comes off as reasonable; however, I also have difficulties attempting to assign any kind of level of certainty to anything beyond one leg. Or maybe I could reasonably assert something like, there is a decently sized possibility that prices will break above $10k in the coming day (perhaps 63%), and once prices break above $10k, if they do, then the odds are greater than 75% that they are going to appreciate at least 10% above $10k.. the odds of those two together seem to be .63 x .75, which is only 47.25%, so once you start to add up events, the probabilities begin to trickle way below 50%, and maybe I am even assigning too high of percentages to the preceding events, so I start to worry that I am speculating way too much if I try to string along too many events at once - even if I have a vision in my head, I become reluctant to say my vision out loud because there are too many contingencies that end up lowering the probability of that outcome by a considerable amount, even though I view my scenario as the most likely of scenarios, it begins to trickle down to the 1/3 or below territory, so it becomes more likely that I am wrong, even if I am picking the most likely of the then available options. I hope that makes sense.

Makes a lot of sense, mate. I'd say it's a solid and grounded mindset to approach trading nevertheless.