Quote from: oda.krell on November 22, 2013, 03:10:29 PM

Quote from: MGUK on November 22, 2013, 02:38:38 PM

I sold around $400. Still got my buys spread between $100 - $200 and they're staying there for a while at least.

I suspect bearishness correlates with how far out people zoom on their chart of choice (e.g. the more bearish, the more the person zoomed out)

I'm going to assume that's what you really did, so then I'm wondering: that strategy only makes sense if you assume that we're going to correct down to between 1/8 to 1/4 of the current price. Which didn't even happen in the April 10 crash in any substantial volume (don't know how much you're expecting to buy, but let's say it's more than neglible amounts). That's pretty hardcore bearish, not just "we're overbought right now and will correct back to July levels" but "we're going back more than half a year, well below the previous ATH". Would actually be really interested to hear why you think that's the case?

So first, I've been studying Bitcoin for 2.5 years. I'm not a trader, I don't follow it to make money. I've invest $100 and that $100 is $100 I count as in the bin (gone.) I'm not a brilliant investor, I lost some of my potential profits doing bad day trading at times, and lost bits investing in altcoins. Generally though after my first year, I stopped trading, mainly holding, doing a sell if I think the price is highly overinflated (e.g. April.)

But this was my reasoning

I think the true value of Bitcoin (and trend) is between early December and early April. I think the trend disappears for a bit due to hype, but continues again from July until October. I think outside of those ranges, the price variation is not due to the value of Bitcoin increasing, but just speculation. I think: when it's speculation, it's risky.

I sold what I had for $800. In my risk assessment, my belief the that price will go down was high enough for me to decide I'm happy to cash out for the time being with 700% profit. An implication of my assumption the price will drop a lot is that holding for longer is an increased risk of losing what I had at the time. Given the choice of taking home 700%, or taking a risk, being a risk averse person, I chose to take the money.

In my eyes, there is never a reason to be sad, second guess or feel like I've lost out with 700% profit. Saying I could have had 1500% profit, to me, is the equivalent of saying "I could have had $20million if I'd picked in last weeks lottery" - pointless.

Yes, I could have held longer and had $1500, but I saw an opportunity to take home $700 with no risk. Makes sense to me.

With my thought process, lost potential profit is not a loss of profit, because that potential profit would have cost risk, which is something I don't like or need to be content.

edit: I would be lying though if I said I wasn't considering revising my buys closer to $200, maybe even as high as $250.