Quote from: PenAndPaper on November 24, 2013, 10:36:37 AM

Quote from: CoinFount on November 24, 2013, 08:28:26 AM

In this scenario, if the pot was actually already at .1 BTC, your pay-in of .09 BTC would win a payout of .17 BTC, and a profit of .08 BTC, since you get the overages back too. (NOTE: if you use this strategy, we recommend a maximum equal to the threshold of .11 BTC per pot as any higher value is statistically irrelevant.)

1.The payout will be 0.18 and the profit 0.09BTC since you said that the overages are returned.

2.If there is at least 1 bet in the pot a dominant strategy exists and that is for the player to bet 0.11 and the reward for that player will be between 0 and 0.09

So if a player only bets 0.11 (and others are not aware of that strategy and bet randomly) he will have an average return of ~~0.044 BTC per bet~~. Edit: 0.04 BTC per bet.

3.Besides all that since you know at any given moment how much money are in the pool, you can always be the one that will push the pot to the threshold.
All you have to do after the bets are over is to show the legit transactions plus the last winning transaction that you did. Noone can't verify if the player that did the last transactions was actually a player or you.

Hi, thank you for your feedback. To answer your questions:

1. Yes, that's correct. I had originally written it as "if the pot was actually already at .09 BTC..." and when I updated that amount I forgot to update the subsequent values. They're updated now, thank you.

2. Yes, that's correct. Pay-in of .11 is the best strategy when possible because you are guaranteed to win the pot. If the pot was empty, there is a net loss of .01. If the pot was .01, it's a push (no gain or loss). If the pot was anything from .02 to .1, there is a net gain of .01-.09. As you say, there is an average profit of about 50%. That's certainly not a bad thing... However, if you can only afford to bet the minimum, you still have a chance to win, it's just a smaller chance than those who bet the maximum (obviously).

3. I've already addressed this a few times but: a) this is possible with almost any gambling site, for example the owner of a poker site could look at everyone's hand and manipulate the outcome, however there is an incentive NOT to do this because b) I want my visitors to win the pots so they will want to keep coming back. c) anyone has the ability to look up Coinbase users by their id, so you could see if I kept winning pots on the same account unless I had hundreds of different bank accounts to connect to hundreds of different Coinbase accounts, which is of course absurd. d) I want people to post proof of payment here after pots are won