Quote from: merkin51 on November 24, 2013, 12:38:14 PM

Quote from: rpietila on November 24, 2013, 12:31:49 PM

Bitcoin is not magically cheap at $750, just because it was trading at $900 for a few hours, and twice bounced back.

That new money is going to the exchanges does not automatically mean that it will be invested the first day if the price is trending down and/or hitting a resistance.

Number of bitcoins to be sold in the event of crash trumps any and all new money easily.

1% of 12 million bitcoins = BTC120,000 = $100M

Current bid depth in all the exchanges combined = $70M.

So <1% of all bitcoins could crash the price to zero.

Of course they wouldn't do it, but it is just naive to think that only the buyers decide the price. In the short term it is very much the sellers who decide, because transferring fiat to the exchanges takes long, and if the sellers take it down like in 10-17. April, new money does not even want to buy any more in the following confusion.

Sure we can go up from here, but if we do, my previous estimate of going up to $2-$3k and then crash to way less than $1k remains valid. Even if the new money entering goes parabolic, increasingly more sellers emerge as they can finally cash out $millions, transform their life, AND leave enough bitcoins to become ultra-rich if the rise continues. This will put some dampener to the price, which is already much ahead of the exponential trend.

The double top and an intermediate term bear market remains a possibility. That would be something new

Funny that nobody is questioning why the price rocketed up before all the positive news and is now struggling... Roll Eyes

$350 is cheap, it is the ATH from 15 days ago Wink

$500 is a reasonable level to start buyback.

If you buy into the delusion of bitcoin singularity, remember it was me who prophesied it first. Grin

If you're still estimating $2 - $3k top, how do you think we'll get there from here? Are we dropping for now, or on the way?

My quick odds for the different scenarios would be:
- Going to the moon = 20%
- Grinding below $1k for some time, then rise to $2-$3k, followed by crash to below $1k = 50%
- Trending down towards $500, probably dipping lower short term = 30%

Since in 80% of the scenarios it will come down to these levels or less, I am in no hurry to buy back. It helps that in the event of moon, I am still numbered among the ultra rich.

EDIT: I read Zangelbert's estimates only after producing mine.