Re: Butter Bot!: New Bitstamp, BTC-E, and MtGox EMA Trading Platform
Huh? You want me to prove that selling at a random time isn't better than what the bot does? That doesn't even remotely make sense 
Done arguing, the math to me is pretty easy. And since I'm up a few hundred bucks over the last few days, I'm good.
No, no, that part was a supposition, what I want you to prove is your statement that the BOT actually wields profit like you said. So, yeah, just post an example for MtGox that works in all time frame and I'll send you 1BTC. Done arguing, the math to me is pretty easy. And since I'm up a few hundred bucks over the last few days, I'm good.Pretty simple.
Here's one that yields more BTC over 2 years (the max time frame). Buy in was at 2.515 dollars each, so 100/2.515 = 39.76 BTC for $100.
Holding that 39.76 BTC for 2 years, then selling for $800 yields $31809. The bot manages $34287 in the same time, which also obviously is more in BTC (42.85 > 39.76). QED.
Feel free to send my BTC to the address in my sig.
Feel free to read my question that is quite correctly worded.
Post some settings that make BTC profit in ALL timeframes of Gox and you get your 1BTC.
If you fiddle with the past numbers you can always find one case where it works, thats easy and... doesn't mean absolutely nothing.
I think we've been quite clear that EMA is a long term strategy; so asking for settings that work in all time frames doesn't make sense. In the short term trades are pretty random (be they profit or loss), this has to do with the fact that trades in any strategy have to be looked at in aggregate (Think of the Law of Large Numbers). One trade or two trades or even ten trades don't mean much in any strategy.
You can see this in the back testing engine, if you back test 1 week, your results will change day to day from profit to loss, etc. If you back test 6 months to a year you will see pretty steady results (be they profit or loss they will remain so with the same settings over the long term).
I don't claim there are magic settings that work in all time frames, as a matter of fact, I have been pretty adamant that EMA trades, like all strategies, need to be looked at in aggregate over the long term. Do you want a real in depth discussion of this point and of EMA as applied to Bitcoin in general?
Please see here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501.0
Butter is heavily based on Gomboo's principles, there you find an educated discussion on the mathematics and principles of EMA trading beyond what we can provide here.
I hope that helps :=).
Pablo.