Quote from: jbssm on November 25, 2013, 12:01:30 AM

Quote from: fible1 on November 24, 2013, 11:49:23 PM

Quote from: jbssm on November 24, 2013, 11:41:24 PM

Quote from: shapemaker on November 24, 2013, 11:37:44 PM

Quote from: jbssm on November 24, 2013, 11:11:37 PM

Quote from: madpoet on November 24, 2013, 11:07:54 PM

Huh? You want me to prove that selling at a random time isn't better than what the bot does? That doesn't even remotely make sense Wink

Done arguing, the math to me is pretty easy. And since I'm up a few hundred bucks over the last few days, I'm good.

No, no, that part was a supposition, what I want you to prove is your statement that the BOT actually wields profit like you said. So, yeah, just post an example for MtGox that works in all time frame and I'll send you 1BTC.
Pretty simple.

Here's one that yields more BTC over 2 years (the max time frame). Buy in was at 2.515 dollars each, so 100/2.515 = 39.76 BTC for $100.

Holding that 39.76 BTC for 2 years, then selling for $800 yields $31809. The bot manages $34287 in the same time, which also obviously is more in BTC (42.85 > 39.76). QED.

Feel free to send my BTC to the address in my sig.

Feel free to read my question that is quite correctly worded.
Post some settings that make BTC profit in ALL timeframes of Gox and you get your 1BTC.

If you fiddle with the past numbers you can always find one case where it works, thats easy and... doesn't mean absolutely nothing.

I think we've been quite clear that EMA is a long term strategy; so asking for settings that work in all time frames doesn't make sense. In the short term trades are pretty random (be they profit or loss), this has to do with the fact that trades in any strategy have to be looked at in aggregate (Think of the Law of Large Numbers). One trade or two trades or even ten trades don't mean much in any strategy.

You can see this in the back testing engine, if you back test 1 week, your results will change day to day from profit to loss, etc. If you back test 6 months to a year you will see pretty steady results (be they profit or loss they will remain so with the same settings over the long term).

I don't claim there are magic settings that work in all time frames, as a matter of fact, I have been pretty adamant that EMA trades, like all strategies, need to be looked at in aggregate over the long term. Do you want a real in depth discussion of this point and of EMA as applied to Bitcoin in general?

Please see here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501.0

Butter is heavily based on Gomboo's principles, there you find an educated discussion on the mathematics and principles of EMA trading beyond what we can provide here.

I hope that helps :=).

Pablo.

That's not the issue. The issue is that since you don't provide custom dates to test the strategy then the only option is to ask for a setting that works for different dates in you backtesting.
If you did, it would be obvious that you couldn't find one setting that worked for the 1st 6 months (I hope 6 months are long term enough for you) of an year and for the last 6 months of the year. The settings would be different in those 2 periods of 6 months and that defeats the purpose of the bot.

Those setting don't exist and I know it because like some user suggested I downloaded the data from the bitcoins charts site and I was testing it, and guess what... what every trader in the financial market knows... there are no EMA (SMA, WMA) crossing strategies that improve your shares capitalization in different time periods.

So please don't tell us this long term strategy buzzword as an excuse, cause you are just using it to mistaken the people.

Hey

,
It's not a "buzzword", it is a long term strategy, it's also a trend strategy, not a High Frequency Trader (HFT). The fact that you don't like the word doesn't change that EMA will work best over the long term for the multitude of reasons described.

I frankly don't see your issue with time frames as we have provided them, they back test your periods to the day, so if you back test for 6 months today, it will back test 6 months to the day, if you back test 1 month from now, it will back test 1 month to the day so there really is no way to game this as we can't control what markets happen in those time frames.

Now I like your idea of including custom time frames, that's something we could definitely look at for the next version, I mean that, there really is no issue.

I agree that the strategy can be improved, we are working on a new engine, because all strategies can be improved; you are however ignoring several people who posted that are making and have made a profit with EMA; it's not fair to pick and choose what data you want to accept in your argument and what you will ignore.

I agree that the strategy does not guarantee profits for everyone at all times, if you find such a strategy (which doesn't exist), you will be posting from your LearJet; what I can tell you is that: EMA will tend to generate more profit than not OVER TIME. Goomboo has made this argument quite successfully over 50+ pages, so it's not like we invented.

I again encourage you to review Goomboo's thread, he is the absolute authority on this issue and I think there is a lot you could gain from reading it. I mean absolutely no offense, I think that if you took the time to read about the strategy, maybe peruse Goomboo's thread and post there as well you would gain some insight on something that other people are telling you has worked for them and something that has been discussed ad nauseum in one of the most respected trading threads on this forum (Goombo's thread).

EMA as Applied to Bitcoin (Goomboo): https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501.0

Pablo.