Quote from: rpietila on November 26, 2013, 07:43:40 AM

Quote from: hannesnaude on November 26, 2013, 07:18:40 AM

Quoting in context:

Quote from: rpietila on November 22, 2013, 09:15:34 AM

Quote from: mmitech on November 22, 2013, 08:52:11 AM

Quote

If we go crazy from here (we are already well above/ahead of the long-term trend), the inevitable result is crash. That is the way turbulence works. This makes it relevant to try to estimate the top and the bottom.

My take:
- Top $2200, bottom $475. Before Christmas.

I was following your posts, there is always a crash in your post, each day you post the same prediction,

(emphases mine)

Man, Bitcoin distorts your sense of time beyond remedy... Cheesy

My first bearish post was this:

Quote from: rpietila on November 20, 2013, 02:05:37 PM

I have also increased the odds that we are in a bubble correction to about 75%. That said, I expect the following things happen:

- Lowest recorded trade will be in $2XX range, bigger volume around $300.
- It will take only 3-6 months to regain the old highs.
- Volume will all the time be lower than in previous situations, there is no widespread panic or general capitulation

Two bubbles in 2013 Cheesy

Who could have thought...

Beating the yesterday's intraday high (BS: $640, Gox: $750, BTCC: $1000) makes me increase the odds that this is just a weekly consolidation. Every day in declining trend erodes the new investor confidence and induces more and more sales from the earlier investor community.

Check the timestamp - it is 43 hours ago. Not even 2 days!

I previously was a bear for less than 2 days when the April bubble initially popped (correctly), then a short time at $48 last March (failed), a little bearish before the final capitulation in June (correctly), and during all of the bear market in 2011 (correctly, with stellar results). Even if this one proves to be false, I still have 60% track record. (52% is enough to make money, needless to say that the majority is not even close).

Even if I am wrong on this one, I will admit it latest next Monday. This leaves maximum about 10 days (out of 1000) that I have been a bitcoin bear with no reason. 1% of the time. Bear with it.

Yes, I admit that Bitcoin will never go to 2XX anymore. Henry Brade (Technomage) was right, I was wrong. We had a FB debate last week.

I still think that $2200 by Christmas and crash afterwards is a possible and probable scenario. My analysis says that each crash low is 2x the pre-bubble ATH. So the essential content of that post still holds, and I am not about to deny that one.

I give better odds that we see my sale price of $672 that that we don't see it.

$2200 by Christmas!