Quote from: ofirbeigel on November 27, 2013, 10:52:38 AM

But if you dont listen to opinions and look at the facts you get a different picture. The following graph shows the adoption rate of new technologies in the US since 1900(from 10%-90% penetration):

This kind of thinking suffers from survivorship bias. What's not in your chart are adoption curves of technologies that failed to reach 90% penetration, that failed to gain traction - like Betamax, Segways and hundreds of "next year's must have gadget". Naturally you're aware of this since you wrote as much in the title of it, but many who look at this chart will think of it in the wrong way. They won't think "if Bitcoin follows the pattern of smartphone adoption it'll grow unexpectedly fast".

It's easy to pick a selection of technologies that had an S-curve, but it's hard to find all the technologies which had a U shaped curve. They failed so we don't remember them.

Bitcoin will do great but it's possible to realise this through more careful rational thinking.