the thing i noticed about all modern parabolic moves is they rarely if ever recover quickly. bitcoins massive run in 2013, the nasdaq in 1999. the thing that gets me though. both of those prior examples had real fundamental reasons that brought them down. 2017 really did not. people just sold....well. because lambo and beach house.
You also need to factor in the trustee selling thousands of coins in the 3rd week of December that also placed a huge selling pressure on the market. After this was done, many traders also followed suit, which resulted into a heavy crash from Dec-Jan. Kinda like a chain reaction, and that's one of the biggest reasons I see why we never really see the light of $20k.
if history repeats 2018 will not rally, it will simply be a consolidation year. weak hands will be shook out. difficulty may even fall on many alt coins. maybe even bitcoin. we may have seen the low at 6k and we may even test 5. going to 4 would be an absolute floor unless we are destined to go to zero. i'm sure a lot of miners would shut down. network traffic would fall. 80-90% of altcoins would die.
The last part of this statement somewhat feels very unlikely today. Multiple times we have tried to go lower than $6000 but it seems that the market wouldn't permit such, though I'll admit there's still room of such a huge crash anytime. If the parabolic movement replicates 2014 and 2017, it could be another year or two of accumulation and quietness in the market. Many would surely let go and cause yet another crash but those who are silently accumulating will continue to do so and cause another hype for people to come back in.
my personal feeling is this may be a range bound year. we probably have an absolute floor at 5k and might go there if a hard attempt is made at the last 6k support. we also likely have resistance at 12k that will push back if we move through 10k.
long term. this is healthy. weak hands are shook out and those of us who stick around will be able to mine easier and accumulate at good prices.
I don't really see bitcoin crossing the $10k mark even within the end of this year. Many are too optimistic but don't understand that it's not possible yet given the market conditions. I'm expecting another stagnant year with many pullbacks and short-lived rises.