Quote from: dothebeats on May 18, 2018, 06:13:07 AM

Quote from: racebum on May 18, 2018, 02:04:49 AM

the thing i noticed about all modern parabolic moves is they rarely if ever recover quickly. bitcoins massive run in 2013, the nasdaq in 1999. the thing that gets me though. both of those prior examples had real fundamental reasons that brought them down. 2017 really did not. people just sold....well. because lambo and beach house.

You also need to factor in the trustee selling thousands of coins in the 3rd week of December that also placed a huge selling pressure on the market. After this was done, many traders also followed suit, which resulted into a heavy crash from Dec-Jan. Kinda like a chain reaction, and that's one of the biggest reasons I see why we never really see the light of $20k.

Quote from: racebum on May 18, 2018, 02:04:49 AM

if history repeats 2018 will not rally, it will simply be a consolidation year. weak hands will be shook out. difficulty may even fall on many alt coins. maybe even bitcoin. we may have seen the low at 6k and we may even test 5. going to 4 would be an absolute floor unless we are destined to go to zero. i'm sure a lot of miners would shut down. network traffic would fall. 80-90% of altcoins would die.

The last part of this statement somewhat feels very unlikely today. Multiple times we have tried to go lower than $6000 but it seems that the market wouldn't permit such, though I'll admit there's still room of such a huge crash anytime. If the parabolic movement replicates 2014 and 2017, it could be another year or two of accumulation and quietness in the market. Many would surely let go and cause yet another crash but those who are silently accumulating will continue to do so and cause another hype for people to come back in.

Quote from: racebum on May 18, 2018, 02:04:49 AM

my personal feeling is this may be a range bound year. we probably have an absolute floor at 5k and might go there if a hard attempt is made at the last 6k support. we also likely have resistance at 12k that will push back if we move through 10k.

long term. this is healthy. weak hands are shook out and those of us who stick around will be able to mine easier and accumulate at good prices.

I don't really see bitcoin crossing the $10k mark even within the end of this year. Many are too optimistic but don't understand that it's not possible yet given the market conditions. I'm expecting another stagnant year with many pullbacks and short-lived rises.

1. did that mt gox attorney seriously unload on an exchange? i mean...why? i'm relatively new but do have a background in securities and there is NO WAY i would ever unload hard if i was given thousands of bitcoins. if i do all the damn bots will follow me into the ground. oh no, especially considering he has quite a few more left. call the winklevoss twins. hell call anyone on the crypto top 10 list and make a deal OTC. even if you give them 10 points off spot it's a better deal than you will get on an exchange when all the bots start going to town on the technical pattern you single handedly create. the media says he has like 160,000 coins left. if 8k coins made this kind of impact it will take him years to unload at that rate. hell even a firesale at 30 points off spot solves his problem, pays all the creditors and a lot is left over. if that guy walked into consensus and said BTC for sale. 30% off gdax if you buy 50 million usd or more i bet quite a few hands would go up. seriously, what is he thinking ?

2. if 2014 does play out the majority of the fall is already over, next is the drift and if the 80% 2014 correction were to ring true again 4k would be the target with 4500-5000 being more likely as everyone would buy as we approach that number. a lot of BTC traders are very technically superstitious. like i have never met a group who puts more weight in elliot waves and fibs than crypto traders.

3. i'm mixed on the 10k comment you made. here's why. the 200sma. the longer we consolidate the easier it is to get on the right side of that. this market also has a thing for 3s. anyone else notice this in the patterns? we have had 2 failed 10k attempts in current history. if 7700 holds right now and we get a breakout a push through 10k has a strong possibility. last time the 200SMA was right at 10k and we bounced off both. if the next rally is a few weeks to a month out and we get on the right side of it one of two major hurdles is already out of the way. clearing 10 however is only a major accomplishment if it holds as support. if we run to 11,700 and get turned around which is highly likely on attempt one everyone will be watching to see if 10k holds or if we run back down under it to a support level in the 8s or 9s