Quote from: frowsiter on May 18, 2018, 06:39:10 AM

There was an article which I read yesterday which stated some technical calculation based on the graphs. Im not techie one to understand that but they clearly mentioned if bitcoin is going to drop below 8K USD (which is about to) then it could happen that we will run into the bearish trend and might hit the low rates of 6-7K USD.

However, they analysed the further data with 4 hours scale and stated that if we do cross exactly 8,600 USD rates then we will turn the trend into bull run.

Now either your post which is based on hypothesis of 2014 data OR this article based on fresh data of 2018 is going to be true. The question is which one is true and on what we should rely on.

from a tech analyst point of view that's almost right on. the lower channel is about 7700usd though not 8k exactly. a drop on volume through 7700 would be seen as bearish with a first major target around 7k. people would then be watching to see if support holds or we drift or we break. as long as the price doesn't get close to 6k it's not a major concern. if it does, especially on volume this being the 3rd visit of 6k makes penetration likely. under that who knows? 4k would be the 2014 correction numbers which honestly seems a bit ridiculous. this market isn't nearly as bad and 2017 didn't have nearly the run up 2013 did

on the bull side we ideally want to see something like a double bottom trace out and move up to 8200-8400 and from that point have a hard move that goes through 8900 which is the 100 day moving average, a move through 8600 which is the near term resistance almost guarantees 8900-9000. the 200 currently is at 10,200 but it falls everyday we are under it. if this sideways situation traces out for another 60 days it will be much easier to get on the right side of it for a run at 10

lastly. tinfoil hat time....which might not be that heavy of tinfoil. next gen miners are being developed. we all know bitmain is a major and i mean MAJOR player. it's in their interest to keep the price reasonable which keeps people away and the difficulty from rising too quickly. do i need to review the difficulty increase in the 2nd half of 2017? once they have mined a lot and sold a lot of the new miners price can be inflated which not only raises the cost of the miners but starts drawing people in. more and more people come in buying more and more coins and miners. bitmain and the other major players can sell into this strength AND sell their products for higher prices. this cycle can continue as long as they have the funds to manipulate price. it gets even more likely if you envision a syndicate or cartel of major players. remember....unregulated market here