Quote from: casascius on July 18, 2011, 09:06:54 PM

I think the price will continue to slowly fall as long as there are early adopters willing to sell.

Forget terabytes of internet traffic. A real useful metric would be one that Theymos regularly calculates: number of unspent generations. (or in other words, number of coins that have been mined but have never participated in any transaction, as determined by scanning the blockchain). Last time I asked him, that figure was 2.4 million BTC, with over 3/4 of those coins being before block 70000 (in other words, mined before July 2010).

Number of unspent generation is a very good indicator, but I think we should look at the market from a different perspective: Bitcoin is still expanding. More and more people use it.

Now most of the transactions come from Bitcoin speculation. In the future, more and more of these transactions will be originated by merchants, thus driving the value up. And IF value constantly goes up, people will be more willing to hold bitcoins.

In synthesis, as long as new adopters will put liquidity in the market by buying small bitcoin ammounts, the price should go up. Now we have less people on the internet, thus less people able to spend. Let's speak again about this around december...