Quote from: Le Happy Merchant on December 01, 2013, 03:48:52 AM

Quote from: drnick on November 30, 2013, 02:33:21 AM

I think the error is in saying "Just 1%", which IMHO is more than would be allocated to bitcoin even at it's prime.

If you have an offshore account you have some wealth. You won't be putting a large % of your cash into bitcoin.

So now you have 3% of 2% of offshore wealth in bitcoin, which is 0.06% of that 30 trillion dollars. That would be about $168k/BTC.

You can revise what you feel is more realistic, but your equation should account for (level of adoption %) x (% allocation in bitcoin given adoption).

Don't forget that an estimated 65% of bitcoins has never been moved, and is likely to be lost.

are you saying that you think 65% of bitcoins are likely lost? maybe they've never been moved, but i strong doubt that even half of those coins have been lost. satoshi has 1.5 million of those, and i doubt he's somehow lost his PW. he just hasn't touched the coins in a long time.