Quote from: pierrejo on December 05, 2013, 07:09:29 PM

For those who (like me) have focused a little too closely on ASICminer thread - here's a link to KnC's thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170332.0

It was started in APRIL 2013 and has over 1200 pages... It has shipped and plans to ship the current best miners (2TH+ in january) for extremely cheap prices ($6,000) This is the competition and I feel it is worth bringing in here when discussing ASICminer. Did ASICminer's business plan change to account for the incredible fast rise of KnC? Does it include the CONTINUED fast development we're seeing from them?

Where did you get this info from? I think you are very mistaken.

KNCMiner is currently shipping their November batch of Jupiters (~ 650 GH/s) which is the most likely reason of the last spike in hashing these days. These were sold in the 5000-6000 range if I'm not mistaken.

They also just launched the pre-order of their new miners, called Neptune, which has been promised to be at least 3 TH/s machines. The first batch for previous customers sold 1200 units for $10,000 US, and now they're selling the second batch of 1200 for $13,000.

The big problem with this preorder thing is that they are committing to deliver during Q1/Q2 2014, which means a 6 month range that can make the difference between big BTC profit and big BTC loss. Even when I am a reasonably satisfied previous customer, I refused to take this deal because my estimations for difficulty increase made clear that it was very difficult to recoup the BTC investment.

I'm estimating that depending on delivery date, a Neptune could make between 6-13 coins. Consider that buying a Neptune was, best case scenario, about 10 BTC not considering hosting/electricity/shipping/duties. And if they delay the release for any "unforeseeable" reason, you'll be royally screwed.

The problem with KnCMiner is the same problem with all pre-orders, you'll never recoup your original BTC investment. It can be a fun way to purchase BTC "futures" but most likely not a way to multiply your existing BTC. I was one of the early preorders for the jupiter, and even though I've been doing pretty fine with mining, I'm expecting to break even BTC-wise. I will obtain in the end very much the same amount of coins I could have purchased directly at the time of buying the machine.

ASICMiner on the other hand, does not run these pre-order schemes. So you are much more likely of making a reasonable assumption of ROI when purchasing a miner. Also, if ASICMiner tapes out in late January, and starts selling/deploying miners anytime in Februray or early March, they can kick KnCMiner's ass, as I really don't think they deliver anything before April. Also, even with older technology ASICMiner's estimations for energy consumption of Gen3 are much lower than KnCMiner super 20nm chips.