Quote from: ffernandex on December 05, 2013, 07:46:04 PM

Where did you get this info from? I think you are very mistaken.

I was mixing my sources as I just started following various threads - the current 2TH for January is Cointerra's Terraminer IV (https://cointerra.com/product/terraminer-iv-2ths-networked-miner-january-soldout/) Additionally KnC will ship miners such as the Neptune in Q1/Q2 (https://www.kncminer.com/products/neptune) and appears to have quite a solid backlog (http://www.businessinsider.com/knc-sells-8-million-in-miners-2013-11) of 800 preorders 3 days ago - that's at least a rise of 2.4PH for the network (we're currently at 6.2PH in December) not considering other manufacturers. Both companies appear to have solid deliveries so far - and fallbacks if missed schedule.

CoinTerra's Terraminer IV (http://thegenesisblock.com/cointerra-announces-2ths-asic-bitcoin-miner-for-15750/) appear to have a 0.6W/GH consumption (https://cointerra.com/cointerra-open-silicon-announce-tape-goldstrike1-asic/), this is 3 times more than fc's 0.2W/GH promise but we are further away from release (nov tapeout: we're at least 3 months behind if not further)

=> my issue is more about the difficulty increase of the network than about the chip efficiency powerwise - is there a network difficulty prediction analysis that takes into account those two companies? (links?)

Quote from: ffernandex on December 05, 2013, 07:46:04 PM

ASICMiner on the other hand, does not run these pre-order schemes. So you are much more likely of making a reasonable assumption of ROI when purchasing a miner. Also, if ASICMiner tapes out in late January, and starts selling/deploying miners anytime in Februray or early March, they can kick KnCMiner's ass, as I really don't think they deliver anything before April. Also, even with older technology ASICMiner's estimations for energy consumption of Gen3 are much lower than KnCMiner super 20nm chips.

"If" - As much as I hate to point it out: we did miss the delivery of Gen2 chips and they got scrapped. But then the Terraminer IV batch 1 will still be there in Jan, batch 2 in march, and they have open order for Batch 3 (April)
CT had its "tapeout" on Nov8 - and their new hardware is supposed to ship in January / Mar / Apr. So if we do manage a January tapeout, we might not see anything before Apr/May... Will the competition be working on new chips by then (KnC)? What will the network be like with the new rival chips out?
Regarding the potential delivery issues: CT did provide guarantees and rebates (https://cointerra.com/cointerra-announces-highest-performance-2-terahash-per-second-bitcoin-asic-mining-rig/) if unable to deliver within 30 days of delivery: that shows confidence, and so does the roaster of chip designers they have going. KnC meanwhile has had successful releases as well and is shipping their Jupiters. It bodes well for their next product: Neptune - promising a 30% reduction in W/GH ,(https://www.kncminer.com/categories/miners) in other words bringing them ~~on par~~ close to par with ASICminer's next gen .2W/GH (They would be at .4W/GH... but have a history of overdelivering as seen with the hash increase for jupiters). That right there should make more than a few of us nervous - it's a race indeed.

What I am getting at is that the BFL effect has dimmed: the field players are now actually shipping close to schedule and I am expecting that to continue.