Quote from: greenlion on December 10, 2013, 07:10:35 AM

Bitcoin may not necessarily have a traditional single S-curve hockey stick, because there are a number of completely different markets it competes for that could achieve critical mass over completely independent timeframes.

Interesting thought. I will have to consider the implications of that. Not sure it would make the graph look much different, might extend the time frame significantly as sequential waves of adoption hit their stride. (Just first thought)

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On the whole, I expect adoption growth to follow and support the price. No surprise there. The speculation actually encourages adoption growth, and creates a virtuous cycle - as we have seen. We may get ahead of this, and occasionally behind as we go - we humans/markets are crazy emotional - and speculation is most often ahead of the "true value" adoption curve as the price/value-finding mechanism works its magic. But the value of the bitcoin network ultimately depends on adoption and ubiquity. Those are the numbers I am watching. And until those numbers start in the other direction, or slow down significantly, I am very confident in price growth. The more real people and businesses accessing and trusting the btc network, the higher the ultimate price. Of course restating the obvious for most of us here.

And now for something more sobering - just for fun...

Thought you all might enjoy this post that showed up in my inbox this morning. This chart was circulating back in April too. It was sent to caution folks about the bubble in equities, but is certainly a cautionary tale for those of us who think/know we are smarter than the average bear (Yogi, and market). I don't believe this is bitcoin's future, but it reminds and reinforces why a Risto-type SSS plan or comparable is essential - no matter how bullish and smart we think we are.

"An early example is the case of Sir Isaac Newton and the South Sea Company, which was established in the early 18th Century and granted a monopoly on trade in the South Seas in exchange for assuming England's war debt.

Investors warmed to the appeal of this monopoly and the company's shares began their rise.

Britain's most celebrated scientist was not immune to the monetary charms of the South Sea Company, and in early 1720 he profited handsomely from his stake. Having cashed in his chips, he then watched with some perturbation as stock in the company continued to rise.

In the words of Lord Overstone, no warning on earth can save people determined to grow suddenly rich.

Newton went on to repurchase a good deal more South Sea Company shares at more than three times the price of his original stake, and then proceeded to lose £20,000 (which, in 1720, amounted to almost all his life savings).

This prompted him to add, allegedly, that "I can calculate the movement of stars, but not the madness of men."

The chart of the South Sea Company's stock price, and effectively of Newton's emotional journey from greed to satisfaction and then from envy and more greed, ending in despair, is shown above. "

Those of you who know more about this example may argue that this is not like btc at all - granted. But we are still dealing with human beings - even in a new crypto-math age.