Quote from: Edward50 on December 11, 2013, 06:31:59 AM

Quote from: imperi on December 10, 2013, 11:58:32 PM

The great Edward50:

Quote from: Edward50

What surprises me about the bitcoin price is how well it is holding around $13 dollars. I guess most bitcoin holders are rich tech savy people, who would rather sit with their coins to their death rather than sell them.

This is probably the reason why the price has not fallen. I can see this going on for a while, and bitcoin holders have already tasted the $20+ dollar range. Most are insane and blind enough in the idea to think each bitcoin is worth a small country. And shit, if I actually owned even 1 bitcoin, maybe I would be insane and blind also. Who does not want to be filthy rich.

Scaracity and hoarding is the only tool that bitcoin bulls have.

Most people interested in buying know that the bitcoin is not worth even worth $13 dollars a coin. They will be much more careful with their dollars.

So the price will be up to the horders not giving in and selling too cheaply. It will not be up to people actually needing or demanding bitcoin for any useful purpose.

I say in the end the price will be lower because every day there are still thousands of bitcoins being produced. With each passing day it will be a test on how long can you hold out when it becomes more obvious that the price is not going any higher.

When I wrote this above it was in 2011, the price was $13 and from that point it fell all the way down to $2.01. In 2013 the price was still $13.

I would like to say that I was almost always correct in my predictions. During my most active time in 2011 early 2012, I watched the price head from $30 to $2.01. I was actually online at the time on mt gox watching it at 2.01. My prediction was it was going to stabilize around $1.00. I based my price on the fact that it was just pennies not months before it hit $30. Many people sitting on thousands of coins at that time. Plus I based it on many other factors also.

When it did not go down to $1.00 like I expected I figured I would wait for it to stabilize and after a few weeks it actually rose higher than $3.00 or so. I was kind of pissed that it didn't fall to $1.00 so I just stopped dealing with bitcoin all together. Removed the bookmarks from my web browser so not to remind me of it.

It was stupid that I did that. During 2012 and early 2013 I have been meaning to get involved with it again in the low double digits, but I just put it off. I have been making lots of Fiat dollars during this time also.

Another stupid thing was I was sitting on so much cash and have been thinking about how to invest it. I did not even think about bitcoin at that time.

But lets face it. Bitcion was around $12 dollars in early 2013. I wouldn't call that such a great rise from where we were at in 2011.

When I wrote that comment about $13 being ridiculous in 2011 and it would go lower, well, 2013 it was still $13. SO I was right during that time. I wasn't around in 2013 to see how things have progressed to say if I was bullish or bearish at that time and I would have been bullish because $13 was a stable price.

I am sure in most of 2012 bitcoin could have been bought for well under $13.

So I was right when I made those comments in 2011 and early 2012. Right after it rebounded from $2.01 I stopped being active and never wrote after that point because I missed my buy in. I was going to invest bit at $1.00.

You sure missed buy in, thats about the only thing I agree with you about.