Thank you for your work and also the no BS, honest assessment.
IMHO, there is an error in your working when you assume that a 50% increase in hash-rate will not change profits much. A 50% increase will decrease overall profitability by 33% per hash. So the estimate on Tribus at $41 per card will actually be $28.
Also in your working I think you have split the profit half-way between DNR (33) and KEYCO(46). Whereas their network hash-rate is 439 MH/S and 113 MH/s respectively, and hence the actual projection should $36, further adjusted down by 33% to $24.
To me its clear the once mainstream mining oriented FPGA card are available, that will be the future as regards to non-ASIC space.
This is pretty accurate which is why on the website it says that for longer term profit projections, a value of $20-$30 USD/day, per card, is a realistic estimate.
Disclaimer: Any forward looking statements are my own and should not be taken as economic advice; only my own personal opinion and what I'm basing my own personal decisions on.
This current batch size of units (the total numbers of units that will come online between now and december) is about 20% of your total number. Even if there are secret groups who are purchasing, the saturation point isn't going to be hit for awhile. I believe the numbers will be closer to $40/day for the next 6-8 months barring some major unforeseen influence or unanticipated situation.