If you've hired a professional statistician on your dime for the community's benefit, we are obviously grateful.
You don't know any folks that know any system dynamics, do you? I'd take that kind of analysis very seriously indeed.
I can only *READ* those... remember this is a chaotic system.
This is a system driven by mass adoption of an invention, which has been modeled before and can be modeled here.
I don't want to play it the smartguy here; but do you really think this simplified model can cover bitcoin dynamics?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_dynamicsI SERIOUSLY don't.
I think it'd be so immensely superior to an extrapolated trendline as to be unworthy of discussion.
I repeat: this is not a tool for daytrading. This would be a tool to help indicate, in general, when bitcoins are overbought and oversold, so you can better identify the tops of bubbles and the bottoms of the following crash; and when there's significant possibility of another bubble in the near future, and when we're headed for an extended bear market.