Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on December 15, 2013, 02:03:58 AM

Quote from: oda.krell on December 14, 2013, 11:28:12 PM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on December 14, 2013, 10:59:04 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on December 14, 2013, 06:40:52 PM

Quote from: samurai1200 on December 14, 2013, 05:26:31 PM

Brisance, youre gaining haters! Must be doing something right. Thanks for your analysis.

Oda.krell, I think I get the gist of what youre saying but it sounds a little scatterbrain. Mind doing a tl;dr?

Then again I just got out of bed. Ill try again after a cup of coffee.

oh, it absolutely is scatterbrained. but if you want a tl;dr...

hypothesis (not properly tested, only observed a few times in the last year):

take the ~~median~~ mean between highest vwap and lowest vwap during a crash. if price bounces back and crosses median, then mainly stays below it in the first days up to two weeks following the crash, bear market more likely, otherwise bull market.

Ok, that clears up my question... (not really Tongue

)
If it was indeed the median, then you are just describing a 50% fibonacci level which also happens to be the mean of 2 points anyway... Back to confusion :/

Edit:
I am guessing this should be performed on a linear chart, since a Log chart would have the 50% point (visually, anyway) off the center of the two points

Could well be a Fibonacci level, never said I discovered something new Cheesy

On the other hand, are Fibonacci levels regularly calculated on volume weighted prices?

Maybe let me clarify: I'm not trying to make big claims about the underlying cause (or trying to generalize the pattern). I've just noticed a pattern, and now am thinking about a way to putting this observation to a test (in a way that takes "intuition" out of the equation). But in my original post, I just applied the method to our current situation, and concluded that I'm slightly leaning towards bearish continuation.

Sure! Fibo can be applied to any type of price chart. Fibo is everywhere, really.

I was checking it out using standard candlestick charts and it is interesting how it likes to create a range around this level. Now, the 38.2 and 61.8 levels reside just below and just above respectively, and are heavily used in target determination for retraces... and though the 50% isn't technically a fibo level, it is a round number, so it's included in the retracement tool on most charting apps. A large part of what you are observing is Fibo in action (falling short corresponds to a 38.2%, and rising above corresponds to the 61.8%). That said, I am curious to see if there is more going on here than just typical Fibo.

Please understand that I am not trying to debunk your observations. Only giving some constructive criticism with hopes of helping you to fine tune your methods.
You are one of the few regular posters that aren't so over-the-top with one sided bias, that I like to see what you have to say in your analyses.

China's Fib Broken Plus lot's of Divergence between gox/btcchina going on.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/DAFkqrrC/