Quote from: lebing on December 17, 2013, 06:57:24 PM

I actually stand to make quite a bit of money should the price go say under 500 however I simply do not see any rational reason why that will happen.

I think you screwed up your post above... otherwise I said stuff I never remember having said :P

Anyway. There's noting rational about this market anyway. Or any market, ever. The only irrational thing is for individuals to somehow think they can "argue" with the market, as if there's a chance they could convince it to go in a more rational direction.

The only thing we have is to judge what is going on is TA, gauging market sentiment, maybe some fundamental analysis. And it looks like we've reached different conclusions based on what we see. You seem to believe in a very quick recovery, faster than ever before (remember: the April recovery was already pretty fast, much faster than the slow correction in 2011).

My view is different: based on the (admittedly short) history of Bitcoin trading there is no occurrence of such a sharp drop being just "shaken off" by the market, and the rally continuing afterwards. You could argue that August 2013 was such a case, but the volatility then was much much lower than the really sharp drops we saw in 2011, April and now (see BBW below). I think it is more likely we will either repeat April (a few more bounces post peak, then a relatively short downtrend of about a month or two), or, if we're unlucky, another 2011 (long, drawn out downtrend, which is probably the scenario lucif puts forward)