Quote from: waveaddict on December 18, 2013, 01:24:01 AM

Quote from: windjc on December 18, 2013, 12:40:19 AM

Quote from: waveaddict on December 18, 2013, 12:28:15 AM

Quote from: windjc on December 17, 2013, 11:50:31 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on December 17, 2013, 07:35:40 PM

Quote from: windjc on December 17, 2013, 07:24:52 PM

Thing is, Luc didn't call for a multi-month-to-a-year bear market.

He said that Bitcoin was in a bear market for 3-4 years. THREE TO FOUR YEARS. I will say this now. If Bitcoin is in a bear market for 3-4 consecutive years bitcoin will fizzle out and probably be dead. So, in my mind, Luc called for the death of Bitcoin. And I personally think that this is utter nonsense in that it is NOT a technical call. That's a personal or fundamentals call. And Luc masked it as technical. That was my only issue with what he said.

Guy said no such thing. Quote: "Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year." That's all.

Ummm. That's 3-4 years away. Ok maybe 2 1/2 - 3 1/2 years.

He also implied that bitcoin would suffer until then.

Why do you believe that a 3-4 year bear market will kill bitcoin? Isn't it just as easy to argue that a bear market will force innovation within the bitcoin ecosystem which would make way for a much larger bull market later down the line? IMO, there is no reason why you cannot be bullish on the future of bitcoin yet bearish on the price for a period of time.

Well what are we considering a bear market? When I think of a bear market, or an untradable market (if you don't do shorts) I think of a market trending downward. So if bitcoin trends downward for 3 years, then I have to imagine a world where nothing significantly signals it to go higher. As it is an emerging technology, this implies to me that Bitcoin is failing at integration as a payment processor, currency and/or commodity investment vehicle.

For instance, if Bitcoin takes a prolonged route of the 2011 crash that resolved itself in about a year a half, this means that over the next 3 years bitcoin bleeds from $700 to roughly $40-$60 (as in 2011 it started at $5 and ended at $2 or 60% lower than where the rise began. So this rally started at $125 it would end at $40-$60).

So for this to happen, what has happened to bitcoin as a currency? Well bitpay and other future competitors surely arent successful at their goals in this scenario. No big business has started accepting bitcoin. I assume no large adoption of bitcoin as payments has been done. No killer app(s).

As a commodity? At $40-$60, it has now lost 93% of its value. So it has failed there.

As a payment processor? I assume no real adaption at this level commercially?

So, in this scenario, Bitcoin is less than what it is today AND it is no longer an "emerging" technology.

I contend that if Bitcoin is going to prosper we need at least another 12-18 months of mass adoption and acceptance. We are not close to the levels we need for sustainability. If Bitcoin follows the route I've outlined, based on what some are suggesting in this thread, then for all intents and purposes it will die, and at the very least probably be replaced with some other digital currency.

Okay...but, IMO, you're making a giant assumption here. Why does bitcoin need another 12-18 months of mass adoption and acceptance to prosper longer term? That seems very arbitrary. Even so, why must it be completely accepted and/or reach sustainability now (within 12-18 months) instead of after a couple of years if not decades. Are we really in that much of a hurry? If bitcoin is truly as revolutionary as we'd like to assume, it's not going anywhere. Patience. Rome wasn't built in a day and neither was the internet. Also, I'm pretty sure the vast majority of alternative digital currencies trade with bitcoin, so maybe a great bear market is needed to seperate the wheat from the chaff.

2011 was a great example of how bitcoin not only survived a prolonged crash but came out even stronger. Whose to say that the same thing can't happen again?

Because bitcoin is a protocol. Its technology is not, by itself, easily adapted into our world. Bitcoin NEEDS an eco system. That eco system is dependent upon great minds and hundreds of millions of dollars into research and development. Bitcoin isn't going to just magically create the tools needed for its success. For the great minds to spend a prolonged amount of time in developing the eco-system, they have to see progress. If bitcoin fails at a currency and commodity investment over the next 3 years, then it won't be sufficient progress.

You say the internet wasn't built in a day. True enough. However, if the internet had had a value associated with it, it would not have had a 3 year bear market at age 3. It grew exponentially as a disruptive technology should.

Now $1200 arrived a lot sooner than most of us anticipated. But with this rise, there comes a certain level of expectations. And if bitcoin is $40 3 years from now, it will have missed all current expectations and the great minds coming on board and the money into development will not be here then.

What is people's fascination with comparing this to 2011? The rise was not as great first of all. That market rose almost 3500%. This was much less. Bitcoin's place in the world was completely different.

Bitcoin no longer exists in a vacuum. Like it or not, ready or not, bitcoin is now a known entity in the world.

Sure we can have a bear market for some months. Maybe we dont go back to $1200 in 2014. Ok. But sometime in the next 3 years there needs to be another rally. Because its expected.

Why is it expected? I can go on and on. But if bitcoin is going to become mainstream, it needs to be embrassed by Wall Street. If Wall Street is given the opportunity to invest in bitcion and does not (and to sustain a bear market, they simply cannot invest, even in relatively small amounts), then I would consider that a very bad sign for bitcoins adoption.