Quote from: Voodah on December 18, 2013, 05:57:56 PM

Quote from: Davyd05 on December 18, 2013, 05:54:01 PM

Quote from: Voodah on December 18, 2013, 05:51:58 PM

Quote from: Vigil on December 18, 2013, 05:47:19 PM

Quote from: gnomesick on December 18, 2013, 05:39:54 PM

Quote from: kurious on December 18, 2013, 05:23:59 PM

ref: rpietila / others who 'knew'

Did they just have 'better' information than us in terms of an early 'nod' on the news?

Maybe this has been raised in the last few pages - I confess I haven't got time to look back - but is it not possible someone knew someone, who knew what was about to happen?

To accurately say 'it will go down to 500' is pretty good.

Was it a timed assault of a wave of selling and the timing was lucky - or was it timed FOR the news once it was obvious it was coming (if you had the right information).

Questions, questions.....

Go here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0
Read it. And then, when you have time, read it again.
This is a good-quality spinoff from that thread as well: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0

Multiple people here were saying $400-$500.

We were all warned and probably most of us very conscious that it just could not stay that high.

It's not necessarily the fact that they got better info, but rather the fact that people more used to doing market analysis and such calls are much more confident in their own assesment of the situation. This allows to execute for longer plans.

I sold when rpietila said, but then I bought back 100 usd below, and then I did that like 4 more times during swings. Had I been more confident, I would've stayed out from the very first time I sold and made at least 2x what I made.

this is all fud driven. As the Chinese government hasn't confirmed shit. China loves to self censor and the world freaked out.

I am quite leaning against the opposite.

Fud driven would imply mayhem and all around uncertainty.

Every day that passes I'm more convinced this was all carefully orchestrated from the get go at 150..

The amount of exchanges available now (as opposed to previous bubbles) made it possible for a much more timely and organized pump & dump.

The China card allowed for a proper and very credible source of misinformation.

"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor

In terms of the timing, we were clearly several slopes above the baseline exponential. The market tapping out twice around 1100 was a key indicator. And there were multiple anecdotal indicators -- holiday spending, news coverage reaching saturation, etc. Understanding the China role in this rally and understanding the perception of China's role.

Any significant negative news was going to trigger a correction. Nothing has really changed in bitcoin-land. We just got ahead of ourselves (again!)

But look, don't ever expect to "call" the top or bottom. Be selling single digit percentages of your holdings every few days when super-exponential and the prior bubble looks like an anthill on the chart. Be buying the same small chunks on the way down, starting from a 25 to 50% retracement.

This is not investment advice. I am not your investment advisor.