Quote from: dg2010 on December 19, 2013, 10:24:08 AM

In a thread asking for predictions I made my first 'call' in a long time.... I'm not in the business of making wild claims.

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$400 would be my prediction. It might dip lower momentarily but I don't see it going below $400 average for any amount of time.

Today I'm right. Only time will tell if I'm wrong.

I've been buying and spending BTC for years, I see the value, I'm not just here as a pure speculator as you are. I'm in the process of launching a bitcoin related business and will have invested a fair chunk of £ doing so. It's a gamble, so not much different to your trading, the difference is I'm betting on the technology and fundamental value rather than simple fact that it may go UP.

So forgive me if I get a bit aggravated at the newbs that come along having only just heard about Bitcoin getting butthurt because they see it fall from $1200-600 and then start making wild claims just stirring up the FUD. You've made a great point to tell everyone that you are out in every thread, what is the point? At this stage you just look like a fool who took a hit and is crying about it. If you are £5k up I see that as a great positive, you would be better served remembering that fact instead of pandering to your fears and trying to spread it around.

$200? Can't see that happening unless there is a cataclysmic bitcoin event like MTGOX getting hacked or some technical issue with the blockchain etc.. Bitcoin still has a long way to go, personally I think the U.S may just blow the next bubble. Coinbase took $25m in VC funding, the mood in the U.S seems to be quietly positive, these big bubbles hurt the perception but in 6 months we may have forgotten all about yesterday.

If you want to go getting on your moral high horse about Bitcoin, I have spent fkn hundreds of them back in sub $10 and even sub $5 dollar days, thus providing the economic backbone for speculators to giddy back on....oh no, no speculating and turning a 10000% profit for me!

Do I win £5?

I called my shot yesterday horribly wrong, so today, you get to be Mr Smug-pants and point out you were right....but in doing so, you are simply entering into the same mindset that I stepped into as I began to string together a run of good calls, in the face of what has proven to be some very bad advice, given out by quite frankly the majority of people on here. Now you are 'predicting' the future based on some cherry picked news facts, but mostly based on 'what happened before'. How is that any different to what I done when I started this thread?

One thing I do believe with investing, is that an investor should be ready to treat all his ideas and opinions as 100% disposable. In that respect, it is actually harmful coming on sites like this and getting involved in slagging matches with other equally clueless idiots, as this results in a tendency to rally oneself under an opinion as though it were a 'coat of arms' and 'fight for it to the death.

In that respect, I am ready to admit that i was butt-hurt when I dreamt up this particular piece of tech analysis, and my emotions would have most certainly coloured my view.

On the otherhand, my 'forecast' did infact happen after both previous bubbles, and both previous bubbles had a period of recovery for a while, trending at around 50%-65% of previous high before the big slump kicked in.

You predict that in 6 months we will all forget that Dec 2013 even happened, just like in November 2013, we all forgot that April 2013 ever happened, or July 2011 before that. If your 'prediction' based entirely on past events is to come to pass, then there must surely exist the same chance that mine will do also.

Whatever.....I am out for now, the waters are too volatile and it surely be infested with sharks.

Quote from: T.Stuart on December 19, 2013, 01:02:04 PM

Quote from: MatTheCat on December 19, 2013, 12:48:40 PM

I played my hand very poorly here.

If you made profit as you say then you didn't play poorly.

Surely it's the sum of your trades that counts, not the result of a single trade out of dozens?

Like I tell everyone.

I hate losing so much more than I like winning.

I took a 900 GBP loss because my nerve went on the rebound from $380 to $550, when a pennant formation started forming at sub $500.

That 900GBP loss could now be 1500GBP profit.

I view my impulsive folly as having cost me over 2K.

I am stung, and I am not playing anymore for now.