Quote from: iPaulito on December 21, 2013, 11:50:09 AM

Quote from: Azeh on December 21, 2013, 10:46:45 AM

Hello All,

I'm sure a few others might be in the same situation, but I'm looking for some serious thoughts about my current position.

I live and work in China and bought Bitcoins through BTC China in October. On the way down I sold my coins. I sent a few back to Coinbase on the last huge sell-off and arbed the market. In the process I cashed out my initial investment with a nice little profit.

I currently have a nice chunk of fiat sitting on the BTC China exchange and I believe there is no way the government will allow any further funding from banks or 3rd parties to the exchanges, so my question is this:

What do you guys think will happen with the BTC China exchange?

My speculation:

When current BTC China users realize the market is not coming back in China many more will withdraw CNY from the exchange, the price will collapse to new lows as users get out of BTC and back into CNY. Bitcoin becomes extremely cheap compared to other exchanges. At this point I buy all I can and transfer out.

Please give me your thoughts on this scenario.

Thanks

Seems reasonable for me. You are not going to be the only one to speculate on that. But for someone as you who can lose nothing, waiting for cheap coins is a great strategy if nothing changes and china will not allow CNY deposits.

Thanks for your reply iPaulito.

Of course I'm not going to be the only one to speculate on that, however, as a percentage of BTC China users that can cash out in a foreign exchange, I think I'm in a unique position. The way I see it, a majority of BTC China users are locked in RMB and very few have foreign bank accounts. Sure they can hold Bitcoins, but what good is it selling those Bitcoins on another exchange if it is very difficult for them to get cash back to China. The only thing they can hope for is if the government reverses it's current stance (unlikely in my opinion) OR sell Bitcoins on a Chinese exchange and cash out.