Quote from: kano on June 30, 2018, 01:32:22 AM

Quote from: ultimul on June 30, 2018, 01:26:59 AM

...

Quote from: kano on June 29, 2018, 02:05:14 AM

Quote from: ultimul on June 29, 2018, 01:40:21 AM

4th block in a row over 160% . . . .
something is wrong here

The probability of the found blocks is shown clearly on the Blocks page.

The probability of the luck of the last 5 found blocks is ... as it says ... CDF[Erl] 0.7670
Which means ... 1/(1-0.7670) = 1 in 4.292 of that happening or since it's 5 blocks, 1 in 21.46 blocks of that happening.
So yep, if you look at any pool out there what doesn't hide their block history, you'll find the current 5 found block luck happen, on average, about every 22 blocks.

After we find the next block, it will again show the numbers.
We'll see what it is when we find the next block.

Quote from: ultimul on March 29, 2018, 12:09:21 AM

probably will be little over 200%

It was 141.334%

actually your math is wrong; having 4 blocks in a row over 150% the probability is very low; not every 20-22 blocks like you want to tell us;

My math is correct and is also based on the last 5 blocks ... as it says ... and as the web site says.

Also read the parts in bold red.

I don't predict the future.

... and now that we are no longer attempting future predictions or choosing data ranges to get our desired results

The last 5 found blocks has a CDF[Erl] of 0.9588

So that works out to be: 1/(1-0.9588) = 24.27
So since it's 5 blocks, that or worse should happen, on average, in a large sample of data, about once every 121.4 blocks
Oh well, not much we can do about that - but also, nothing is statistically wrong with that

Edit: wording correction