Quote from: jasonjm on December 25, 2013, 12:45:44 AM

is bitcoin ever going to get a USA exchange?

kind of crazy that half the volume is USA based (or close to it), and there is not a single USA bitcoin exchange?

I think that would be a bullish signal for me (personally).

Not true.

I buy and sell Bitcoin mostly in USD.

I am from the UK, and the exchange I mostly use is in Slovenia.

Quote from: bitrider on December 25, 2013, 01:01:45 AM

Somewhat true, but only small part of the story. BTC market, like all commodity markets is now and will continue to be heavily manipulated by those with big resources. That's just the way it is. And an unregulated like market like btc even more so. Trying to beat them or deny them is just stupid. Understanding them and following them is smart.

A market like btc must be "conditioned" as part of the process of bringing big money to the table. The market is "conditioned" by running the price up and down, shaking out weak hands, and enticing new money into the game - who will soon become future weak hands. Conditioning the market spreads the coins around, and ultimately grows the coffers of the big players - who are driving the market fluctuations. If the price stays too low for too long, you have no new money coming into the arena. A depressed and sad market is not what the big money wants. They will drive prices down to capitulation levels, just long enough to shake out the fearful weak hands - without destroying the underlying market. If the price gets too far ahead, the big players can't get hold of enough new coins at low prices. So there is incentive for the big players to increase volatility, and keep people caught in their emotions (fear, greed). Just like a casino. Exactly like a casino.

Also it is important to realize that it is not easy to say what "wall street money" is going to do at any particular time. They are not one mind entity - they are competing whales, trying to get over on each other and at the same time pull as much coin from the clueless emotion-driven little guy as possible. This creates competition and more confusion if you are trying to understand what is going on. And also makes it very difficult for anyone entity to fully control what is happening. That is the genius of markets - even flawed and heavily manipulated ones.

Morale: If you are feeling fear when the price goes down and greed when the price goes up, there is a target on your coins. Lock them away carefully and do not play with the big boys. Or as Cat says above, you will certainly lose.

Although I am a very strong long-term bull, I love lower prices (I buy more coins). I also love high prices (I do nothing - well occasionally sell 10%).

BTW - Love the research done on the OP chart. Thanks for that! My own take....I believe (perhaps naively) that anyone who owns that many coins for this long, and was part of building this community early on has a strong incentive to do what is in BTC's best interest. Probably sold the coins to some player or company that will strengthen the ecosystem. I think we will see lot more of this as we forward, and the wealth of the early founders becomes massive. They will spend their btc to support and nurture the ecosystem. They are clearly very very rich men personally already.

Excellent post and interesting perspective on the BTC market and what forces may be be driving it.