Quote from: windjc on July 02, 2018, 02:54:04 AM

Quote from: bluebits on July 01, 2018, 11:45:06 PM

Quote from: TERA2 on July 01, 2018, 02:54:09 PM

Quote from: V1lpu on July 01, 2018, 02:47:13 PM

You should plot 2011 on there too

Theory: As the market grows in absolute value the time needed for the bear market process increases. This is due to the much larger number of players and money in each subsequent cycle. As an easy thought experiment, BTC can crash and blow up in just weeks if only a few hundred people are speculating in it. On the other extreme, if BTC is owned by everyone, the cycles would match economic ones with major changes taking decades or more to work through.

Application: 2018 crash will take longer than the prior 2 cycles and (excepting total BTC failure) will not be as severe in total loss percentage. This would predict a bottom around late 2019 in the 3k range.

Current Trade: To match the predicted timescale and magnitude it is likely we need another glade (3.0) to take it back to 8k+. This will take up another 2+ months, setting up the stage for a fall to fake bottom #2 (4.5k area). A few bounces off this area and then a final fall into the 3ks. From here it can bounce and slowly bleedout out as pessimism reaches a peak.

External Events: ICO failure and enforcement, continued regulation and exchange failure, and most of all the coming next business cycle global recession would set up things for several years in the early 20's of bottomed out prices. This would be the time to find promising alts using new technology.

$3000 is the new $99. Everyone and their grandmother expects us to go there.

I don't. So there.

Very nice comparison

but

2011 - Markets where not very liquid - highest volatile and not accountable

2013 - We had first China crack down and MtGox desaster

Now: If we go down that high (comp to 2011 / 13) - with many of those parameters improved or not existent -> REKT