Quote from: Aleister Crowley on July 12, 2018, 11:55:28 PM

Quote from: Turan100 on July 12, 2018, 10:46:54 PM

France -croatia is hard to guess the odds , i want to go for Croatia but in the papers france will take the cup , what is your prediction please ?

this is a very heavy choice .. croatia do have a very strong middle player .. but french has a quality player that is flat on all line .. I also tend to choose croatia ,. but if we look at the quality of players ,, french is superior

it looks like I will not bet anything in the final game

Why do you think that?

OK, on page 6 I was lucky enough to predict the final between France and Croatia using the match-mismatch logic (although I have to admit, I didn't see France getting there after I found out that Payet will be missing the World cup, but kudos to France for making me wrong).
I was wrong about one semifinalist, but who was not wrong about that one (Germany)?

I also predicted that France will win the World cup. However, that was based on the opinion that they will have strong ball possession and Dimitri Payet to rule out the game.

Now, let's compare the lines (it's hard to expect that the managers will change anything):
Lloris vs. Subaić, I say 50-50% (both in great form);
Varane, Umtiti vs. Lovren, Vida, 60:40% (France defense is much faster although I think that of those 4 the only one clear for WC top 11 is Lovren);
Pavard, Hernandez vs. Vrsaljko, Strinić, 55:45% (French sides play a fantastic tournament, but Croatian are even more dangerous offensively)
Pogba, Kante, Matouidi vs. Brozović, Rakitić, Modrić 45:55% (French middle is very strong in the defense but Croatian is much more creative);
Griezmann, Mbappe vs. Rebić, Periić: 55:45% (Mbappe is not constant but is still one of three best players on this tournament (besides Hazard and Modrić) but if you look at the tactical display so far, Rebić and Periić are equally important and efficient for Croatia; slight advantage to France, but only because of Mbappe's display against Argentina and Belgium, but you have to keep in mind that it is much more easy to stop one player than 10 of them);
Giroud vs. Mandukić 40:60% (Mandukić won more balls and is far more dangerous in finishing).

Deschamps vs. Dalić - 50-50%, although you could really ask yourself - which of the two managers got more of the potential out on the surface from their respective teams?

I think you will have to mostly agree to this evaluation, so I don't see why France should be such a strong favourite. Besides their reputation I mean? Both France and Croatia were lucky enough to get to the finals (Croatia twice on penalties, France lucky against Peru and Australia and Uruguay missing Cavani, which would be the only serious mismatch against them in this tournament).

What else is so clearly on French side besides their name - running + freshness? I think England, a slightly younger team, already tried that.

+Don't forget the most important thing. It is always 50-50% in the final. Just look at the history and what happened to those that were most assured they would win.