Quote from: jballs on December 31, 2013, 12:42:07 AM

Quote from: Mikcik on December 31, 2013, 12:07:10 AM

Are there (on this forum) some REAL market traders. That means people who already had experience trading stocks, bonds, commodities, equities or i dont know what more, simple real life trade experience (preferably longer and preferably succesful)? Did someone for example worked as broker or on some exchange... etc. etc.

Is there any such fellow? Whats his take on bitcoin? What statistic research/test calculations and in what software (SPSS?) did you done.
whats your take on bitcoin...? (or do you know someone like this in your real life, whats his personal opinion on bitcoin)?

Please reply only people who fit the description above, i dont want (in this this thread) reaction of "so called bitcoin traders, that just FEEL (!) (:-O! :-D! ?) that price will go up and up and up" :-).

Well, yes. I have about 20 years experience trading. Predominantly futures and derivatives, commodities, currencies, interest rates, energies, etc. I was an institutional/retail broker for about 8 years and owned my own firm for most of those. Now I am a hedging consultant and prop trader, which is nearly the same thing just don't do brokerage anymore because I don't like most people when they become clients. When they are just people I like them more.

I actually wrote a book on it, you can borrow it free if you have amazon prime

http://amzn.com/B0091XN1KS

Anyway my take on bitcoin is the exchanges are fubar so I won't trade it there yet. MTGox looks ok but then not really, BTCe is a disaster waiting to happen- they might be 100% legit and stay that way but who the hell are they and who gets your money back if they fly by night? US exchanges have slipped a notch since Corzine and PFG debacles but I can still sleep at night with my money at the CME. None of these exchanges are transparent or accessible enough to warrant the risk afaic. Not disparaging them, I don't know, just scares the hell out of me.

So, it's a buy and hold market for me. I may put small amount into coinbase to buy altcoins on spec. But larg bitcoin investment is strictly through escrow/localbitcoin face to face with my gun. And then I am camping on them. I'm very bullish, long term. I'd like to trade the action because the swings are great, and the trend is steady considering the volatility. But its not worth the risk of disappearing account to me. Just going to hold and trade commodities at the merc to grind out in the meanwhile.

Hope that helps...

This is my new Holder's Manifesto, going to pull it out any time some muppet starts going on about how buying and holding is foolish versus trading.