Quote from: dothebeats on July 26, 2018, 11:33:25 AM

Quote from: Pursuer on July 23, 2018, 11:35:16 AM

Quote from: Xester on July 23, 2018, 11:29:50 AM

There are three things that are possibly going to occur if bitcoin ETF will be approved by the Securities and Exchange COmmission. The first is that bitcoin may increase in value because of the good news, 2nd is that bitcoins value will decrease in value or 3rd there will be no effect. So today what we have is only a possibility but we will see what will really happen only after it was approved.

I disagree. there is only one possibility, price will definitely increase in case ETF is approved by the SEC. and it won't be because ETF is a good thing or anything like that but it would be because of Fear Of Missing Out and pure speculation that bitcoin should rise because ETF was approved!
it doesn't have to even make sense, people have to believe in it and then act on this speculation for the price to go up. of course there is positive sides to such approval by SEC too but that will be more of a long term effect.

It still depends largely on what would the market reaction be. While most people are banking on the bitcoin ETF to be approved, without enough support on a possible push, it wouldn't be an increase at all. Most people see the approval of an ETF to be somewhat magical, while in reality if a large group of traders aren't believing on the effects of such, there would be a stalemate and no real crashes or increase at all. As you've said, it's pure speculation, and even with the approval of a 'big' event, what happens in the price will still be pure speculation, so assuming that it will definitely increase is somewhat wrong.

yeah, I agree. I actually have changed my mind in the past 3 days. I no longer say "definitely" increase any more. I think we may even see a drop although that depends on how the market reacts up until that point. the drop that I am talking about is the "sell the news" kind of drop which means there should first be a big rise prior to the statement from SEC regarding approval or disapproval of ETF.