Quote from: eleuthria on January 02, 2014, 11:35:36 PM

If you didn't use the pool's actual 24 hours for your numbers, you're WAY off, by nearly a factor of 2. 144 blocks * 25% = 36 blocks/day expected, which is 900 BTC. 90% of that is PPLNS and 10% is PPS (rough numbers), or 810 / 90. 810 x 2% (accounting for orphans) = 16.2 BTC. 90 x 6.5% (accounting for orphans) = 5.85. Meaning if the pool is functioning normally, at perfectly neutral luck, it's ~22 BTC. I did not include tx fees the pool collects because those are not a noticeable increase, and those are shared with miners. Additionally, the pool *pays* transaction fees for all payouts which is not included. Right now the numbers are a bit higher due to network growth. If you want to factor that in, add an extra 20% or so. Of course that assumes that the pool grows in unison with the overall network.

A percentage of that income is also required to be set aside as a buffer for bad luck (PPS), as well as the chance of a security breach, because unlike some pools *cough*50BTC*cough*, BTC Guild will actually honor its debts in the event of a compromise.

I used the only value that can be easily determined: the pool speed as reported by the website.
Values such as 144 blocks or 25% are much more difficult to predict as they rely on total network hash speed, which is only based on estimates.
Again it was just a rough calculation.

Quote from: eleuthria on January 03, 2014, 03:49:06 AM

Everything is running fine, it's just really shitty luck. 2x 4(+) hour blocks in close proximity pretty much nukes the blocks per shift for most the day. A 4 hour block is (roughly) a 7x difficulty block. These are not extremely rare, but it is quite rare to have 2 of them very close together.

Talking about luck again: are there any plans to implement a luck index for the current difficulty?
I assume the current figure is based on data over a very long period of time and it is basically useless for new miners that want to join. Most newbie miners would blindly believe that 103%+ luck is what they get if they join the pool.
I am curious at how much the 103.7% value will drop once the unlucky shifts close.
What are the reasons behind not letting people know what is the pool luck for the past 10 or so days?