Quote from: Ibian on January 03, 2014, 12:26:53 PM

Quote from: Hawker on January 03, 2014, 11:55:31 AM

Quote from: Ibian on January 02, 2014, 08:17:14 PM

Quote from: Hawker on January 02, 2014, 08:04:37 PM

...snip...

The problem with that line of argument is that people have been saying since the New Deal. At the moment the economy is bouncing back so obviously the crisis you expect is at least 3 years off. You may well be right but the wait to find out is more likely to be 50 than 5 years.

There is really only one number that matters here and that is the US debt. It keeps growing, and it doesn't look mathematically possible that it will ever stop. This will eventually result in either hyperinflation or a default. That's not an argument or an opinion, it's just numbers.

Really? I think you will find that the US debt costs have been falling for a decade or so. The headline amount grows but its borrowed at a negative interest rate so it doesn't matter.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/10/09/5-facts-about-the-national-debt-what-you-should-know/

Perhaps when you see countries like Japan having debt issues, we might find out the limit of what a government can borrow. Japanese debt is over 200% of GDP while the US debt is about 75% and there is no foreseeable future in which it reaches 200%. And the Japanese have no problems with the debt...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-debt-now-about-73-of-gdp-cbo-says-2013-09-17-1091240

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

It doesn't matter what kind of interest the loans you take to repay your old loans has. Until that number starts going down instead of up, we are getting closer to hyperinflation or default by the day. Make all the excuses and fancy equations you want, reality doesn't change just for that.

Correct. But the time-scale is the issue here. US debt has grown a trillion a year. If the US carries on expanding its debt until it reaches Japanese levels, that will take about 120 years. Unless you are really optimistic about gene therapy and cloning, you won't be around to worry about it. And even if you were, the Japanese seem to doing OK with that level of debt.