Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
So, was my argument wrong?
yes, it was wrong. Your argument was that AM was already overvalued around 2.5 btc or so, and that upcoming competition would limit the profits and share price. While competition eventually materialized, it only did so after several competition failures and share prices increased more than 100% after you were claiming they would start decreasing.That's like saying the world will come to an end, and sure, you're eventually right, but only after being wrong for a very long time.
I clearly stated that "By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition" and "AM share holders are going to get hit by a good dose of reality in the coming months". So what if the share price temporarily increased? What was the share price at the end of the year? Did those who bought shares at that time get a good deal or did they get burned?
Here's some of our discussions at the time:
Perhaps you should have paid attention to the part where I said:
Quote
The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition.
I heard the same thing in April, then May, then June, and now July, and now by the end of the year. When will this competition arrive, again?
Yeah, clearly for the rest of time, AICMINER will be the only company able to produce ASICs.
well, the competition have been promising production for quite some time, and each one has failed to deliver. Why should we assume they will eventually succeed. Isn't the likely case that they will continue to fail?
Another person, not paying attention. I never said anything like what you're claiming. I pointed out that by the end of the year there will be a lot more competition and showed how that will compare to AMs current hardware. The point of that was to show that AM will no longer be able to sell 2 Mh/s for 1 USD once that competition is available because the competition will be offering 50 Mh/s for the same price. Nobody in their right mind would buy AM hardware under such circumstances.
you are making assumptions that competitors will actually arrive with hardware and numbers to be able to make a dent in AM's sales. Will this eventually happen ? probably. When will this eventually happen? no one knows. To date, we've heard competitors announcing the release of their hardware every few weeks for almost 6 months. But nothing has arrived. So, what makes you think that they will eventually be able to get it done?And really, comparing vaporware with real hardware you can buy right now is complete nonsense. Vaporware is cheap to produce, cheap to sell, and cheap to promote. That doesn't make it any more viable, though.
Face it, my argument was blatantly obvious and your arguments were quite clearly ridiculous. Shareholders were simply too blinded by greed to see the truth of that at the time. You are making the same mistake all over again.