Quote from: sipak on January 05, 2014, 02:52:50 PM

Quote from: CYPER on January 05, 2014, 04:39:07 AM

Quote from: acegilz on January 05, 2014, 04:30:20 AM

Quote from: CYPER on January 05, 2014, 03:33:05 AM

Quote from: sipak on January 05, 2014, 01:11:54 AM

Well, is quite sure that prices at cex.io are in real bubble:
I used mining calculator at http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ with buying 100GHS at current price from cex.io for 4BTC (1GHS=0.04BTC), and I couldn't break even with higher monthly increase of difficulty than 32% per month, see http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/7908fc0daa
If used more appropriate increase in difficulty of 100% per month, I can break even after 6 months when I buy 100GHS for 2BTC (1GHS=0.02BTC) and after next 6 month the profit will be 0.04 BTC, see http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/2be83da502

I guess that market participants at cex. io dont use math. Any comments?

Fixed percentage difficulty increase month over month over month.
Maybe in 2020 the total surface area of Earth would not be enough for all the asic chips, needed to sustain that difficulty.

difficulty is adjusted and can decrease... what happens nowadays is that minining power keeps increasing so new difficulty is always higher. i believe it should break someday

People who use the Genesis block calculator do not realise that. They blindly believe that difficulty will increase to infinity by the same fixed monthly percentage.

Don't get me wrong, I know the difficulty will level at some point in the future. Thing is that if it won't level in 3-4 months, current prices for GHS are too high (they are great for operators to resell uneconomical hardware to suckers and speculators on suckers). And since we don't see deceleration on the side of hardware yet, it is wrong to suppose that the difficulty will adjust any time soon: new more powerfull and relatively cheaper products are announced already throughout the 2014.

What I expected in answer is somebody, who show me numbers: I bought GHS/BTC at this price and after 6 months I broke even (no referals counted) in terms of bitcoin and now I am getting positive cash flow only - you see it was real investment and I am not a sucker.

I completely agree that GHS prices are too high and one can't ROI.
My gripe was mainly with the Genesis Block calculator.
A better calculator is http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php