Quote from: fluidjax on January 06, 2014, 09:04:41 AM

Quote from: sir faps on January 06, 2014, 08:54:36 AM

Quote from: seanneko on January 06, 2014, 08:28:56 AM

Quote from: nanobrain on January 06, 2014, 08:21:25 AM

As Hyphymikey's posts show, people can take what is said here seriously and base their investment strategies on users comments

I can't believe that people actually do that. Nobody has ANYTHING to gain by giving the world advance notice of their trading intentions. The best thing to do is either ignore, or do the opposite of what large holders claim they will be doing in the near future.

A fool and their money...

False. People have REPUTATION to gain. Never underestimate how powerful praise can be if you are deemed a demigod of trading (or predict anything ahead of time for that matter). I can give you a very specific, recent, and pertinent example:

Rpietila said there would be a drop to low 400s in December. I held my fiat and waited. Sure enough, my phone started blowing up with notifications of falling BTC price. I waited, it hit 400, I bought, and it immediately rose hundreds of dollars. I said thank you to Rpietila for his advice. I am now up over 100%. Some fool I am...

There are only 3 possible scenarios for ALL time scales, realistically only 2 matter, up and down (otherwise you can wait and see). So even a monkey has a 50/50 chance of getting it right, in fact a monkey will probably be better than a lot of inexperienced traders.

I agree that markets have 3 directions. I agree that a money can pick between two choices. A monkey would be hard-pressed to predict the movement, the price point at which it will reverse direction, and a timeline for that movement.